Global Terrorism Index: key findings

World Markets Research Centre
Monday August 18, 2003

D· The World Markets Research Centre ranks the US as the country with the fourth-highest risk of terrorism. Another September 11-style attack in the US is highly likely.

Networks of militant Islamist groups are less extensive in the US than in western Europe, but US-led military action in Afghanistan and Iraq has increased anti-US sentiment.

Given the country's size, and the freedoms that its population currently enjoys, it will prove impossible to eradicate the threats that extreme manifestations of this sentiment produce, however good counter-terrorism operations are. The US also receives a high ranking because of the high risk to its interests abroad.

· The UK faces the greatest risk from terrorism of any European state, and is ranked 10th overall.

Motivation for such an attack among Islamist extremist groups is very high owing to the UK's close alliance with the US, while sophisticated militant networks are known to be present within the country.

The one redeeming factor is the UK's strong counter-terrorist capability, but this can never be wholly effective.

· Of the 186 countries assessed, Colombia is ranked top.

Both leftist guerrillas and right-wing paramilitary groups are extremely active. Dealing with the threat that they pose is a government priority, but military solutions and attempts at peace negotiations have had, and will continue to have, little effect in the short to medium term.

· Israel was the only other country to be rated as being at extreme risk, ranking second in the index.

This continues to be the case, despite intensified international efforts to develop the road map to peace, and the announcement, in June this year, of a temporary ceasefire agreement on the part of the Palestinian militant group factions.

· In third place, Pakistan's domestic terrorism issues continue to be a source of constant problems.

As a key member in the war on terror, elements within the elite are evidently keen to pursue domestic terrorists as well as the al-Qaida operatives using Pakistan as a refuge.

This policy is working to some extent, but strong ties with individuals and cells that espouse and pursue terrorism, some of which have been cultivated by past governments, make it very difficult to eradicate the problem.

· North Korea came bottom of the survey despite its membership of the so-called axis of evi'.

This is because the repressive state controls in force there make it effectively impossible for terrorists to operate.

· Regionally, the Middle East and north Africa have the highest rating.

The number of countries ranking highly in the Middle East is the result of regional tensions following the war in Iraq, and continuing hostilities in Israel and the occupied territories.

The sharpening of anti-western/anti-US sentiment in the region, which retains the potential to become violent, has been of particular concern.

· Africa has the lowest regional risk of terrorism.

This reflects the continent's general marginalisation in international politics, and its uneven incorporation into the global economy.

There are important exceptions, with east Africa and the Horn's proximity to al-Qaida operational bases leaving those areas vulnerable to attack.

In west and central Africa, some guerrilla groups have employed terrorist strategies to gain control over land and resources, but southern Africa has been, and is likely to remain, relatively free from the risk of terrorism.

· The client survey showed that 84% of respondents thought that the risk of terrorist attacks against the US and the UK had increased as a result of the war in Iraq.

These figures throw into question the likely effectiveness of the war on terror in successfully reducing the risk, at least in the short term.

· Businesses also felt that the risk from terrorism was increasing.

Almost three-quarters of those polled thought terrorism posed a greater risk to their operations now than five years ago. A a similar amount, 72%, revealed that they had included this risk in their decision-making process.

· This outlook was somewhat tempered by the survey's findings on safety drills.

A surprising 56% of those polled revealed that their company had never conducted a safety drill or business continuity exercise.