Analysis: Al Qaeda, Anthrax and Ayman

By Ross Getman 

In early June 2003, a Central Intelligence Agency ("CIA") report concluded that the reason for Mohammed Atta's and Zacarias Moussaoui's inquiries into cropdusters was for the contemplated use in dispersing biological agents such as anthrax. An early September 2003 Newsweek article included a rumor by a Taliban source that at a meeting in April 2003 Bin Laden was planning an "unbelievable" biological attack, the plans for which had suffered a setback upon the arrest of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed ("KSM") the previous month in Rawalpindi, Pakistan.

Many people have argued that a US-based Al Qaeda operative is behind the earlier Fall 2001 anthrax mailings in the US, and that the mailings served as a threat and warning. This would follow the pattern of letters they sent 1997 to newspaper branches in Washington, D.C. and New York City, as well as symbolic targets, in connection with the detention of those responsible for the earlier World Trade Center bombing in 1993. Handwritten notes and files on a laptop seized upon the capture of KSM, Al Qaeda's #3, included a feasible anthrax production plan using a spray dryer and addressed the recruitment of necessary expertise. What your morning paper did not tell you, however, was that the CIA seized a similar disc from Ayman Zawahiri's right-hand, Mabruk, 5 years ago. Thus, there is a risk that observers underestimate the time that Al Qaeda has had to make progress in such recruitment and research and development. 

Some may still think that even in the final stages of the plot, which KSM and Ramzi code-named "Porsche 911," Zacarias Moussaoui was going to fly a 5th plane into the Capitol or White House. There is an email by Moussaoui, however, dated July 31, 2001 indicating that he sought to take a cropdusting course that was to last up to 6 months. Moreover, in March 2003, Mohammed, reportedly said that Moussaoui was not going to be part of 9/11 but was to be part of a "second wave." Accused September 11 conspirator Zacarias Moussaoui told his trial judge that he had an al Qaeda mission that would have come after the terrorist attacks. KSM explained that his inquiries about crop dusters may have been related to the anthrax work being done by US-trained biochemist and Al Qaeda operative, Malaysian Yazid Sufaat. Al Qaeda's regional operative, Hambali, who was at a key January 2000 meeting and supervised Sufaat, has been captured. Attash, the planner of the Cole attack and another participant at the January 2000 meeting, has also been captured. 

Sufaat, according to both KSM and Hambali, did not have the virulent US Army Ames strain that was to be used. That would require someone who had access to the strain. But nothing would stand in the way of Dr. Ayman Zawahiri's decade-long quest to weaponize and use anthrax against US targets that was described by one confidante to an Egyptian newspaper reporter. The islamist had been released from Egyptian prison and had known Zawahiri well for many years. So a key question is how they acquired the anthrax strain first isolated by the Texas Veterinary Medical Diagnostic Lab in 1980. Among the supporters of these militant islamists were people who blended into society and were available to act when another part of the network requested it. 

I Summary and Introduction 

First, Al Qaeda has had anthrax, the raw seed product in its unweaponized form, since at least 1997, when it was purchased by Bin Laden through the Moro Islamic Liberation Front ("Moro Front" or "MILF"). Zawahiri, Al Qaeda's #2, is head of Al Qaeda's biochemical program. The CIA has known of Zawahiri's plans to use anthrax for a half decade. The confidante and right-hand man of Dr. Ayman Zawahiri admitted that Zawahiri succeeded in obtaining anthrax and intended to use it against US targets. Another senior Al Qaeda member (a shura or policy-making council member no less) was working for the Egyptian intelligence services and he confirmed the report in a sworn lengthy confession. Even Zawahiri's attorney in 1999 said that Bin Laden and Zawahiri were likely to resort to the biological and chemical agents they possessed given the extradition pressure senior Al Qaeda leaders faced. A recently released islamist who had been a close associate of Zawahiri said that Zawahiri spent a decade and had made 15 separate attempts to recruit the necessary expertise to weaponize anthrax in Russia and the Middle East. The US Army recipe was not used, and obtaining the unprocessed Ames strain of anthrax used does not pose much of an obstacle or warrant the weight given it by some press accounts. There was lax control over the distribution of the Ames strain that was used, especially in light of the fact that transfers were not even required to be recorded prior to 1997. Significantly, the individual who isolated it nearly a quarter century ago (now retired), upon being contacted, does not report that he sent the only copy of the strain to Ft. Detrick. 

Al Qaeda's anthrax production plans on Khalid Mohammed's computer did not evidence knowledge of advanced techniques in the most efficient biological weapons. At least according to the public comments by bioweaponeer experts William Patrick and Kenneth Alibek, under the optimal method, there is no electrostatic charge; in the case of the anthrax used in the mailings, there was an electrostatic charge. Although there was a dominance of single spores and a trillion spore concentration, there were clumps as large as 40 - 100 microns. (Spores must be no bigger than 5 microns to be inhalable.) As Kenneth Alibek, the former head of Russia's anthrax production program, explained on March 31, 2003 in response to a written question, "This anthrax wasn't sophisticated, didn't have coatings, had electric charge and many other things." Many point to the trillion spore concentration as extraordinary. It is far simpler, however, to achieve a trillion spore concentration in the production of a few grams than in industrial processing typical of a state sponsored lab. 

Until addressed by a November 2002 article by Scott Shane of the Baltimore Sun (which then was reinforced by his April 11, 2003 story on the results of reverse engineering at Dugway Proving Ground in Utah), the "trillion spore" issue was at the heart of a lot of mistaken theories of the matter concluding that state sponsorship was necessarily indicated. The reported finding at Dugway undermines the argument of both the "bomb Iraq" crowd and the liberals focused on Dr. Steve Hatfill who object to US biodefense research because they view it as being useful for offensive purposes. 

Khalid Mohammed says that Zacarias Moussaoui's inquiries about crop dusting may have related to Yazid Sufaat's anthrax manufacturing plans. Although the details of the documents on Mohammed's computer may (or may not) point to possible difficulties in aerial dispersal, they are fully consistent with the product used in the anthrax mailings. Al Qaeda had both the means and opportunity. 

US-trained Malaysian biochemist Yazid Sufaat met with 9/11 plotters and two hijackers in January 2000. Sufaat was a member of Al Qaeda and a member of Jemaah Islamiah ("JI") JI has ties with the Moro Front. Sufaat used his company called Green Laboratory Medicine to buy items useful to Al Qaeda. (Green symbolizes "Islam" and Prophet Mohammed's holy war). Zacarias Moussaoui, who had a crop dusting manual when he was arrested, stayed at Sufaat's condominium in 2000 when he was trying to arrange for flight lessons in Malaysia. Yazid Sufaat provided Moussaoui with a letter indicating that he was a marketing representative for Infocus Technologies and allegedly provided him $35,000. The crop dusters were to be part of a "second wave." 

After 9/11, Yazid Sufaat traveled to Afghanistan and Pakistan to work for the Taliban Medical Brigade and to continue his work with anthrax. As described in US News, a former reporter from the Kabul Times apparently actually met Sufaat, without realizing it, while traveling near Kabul in October 2001, perceiving him as Filipino. The fellow was carrying papers from Zawahiri and bragging about his ability to manipulate anthrax. Sufaat was arrested in December 2001 upon his return to Malaysia. Newsweek reported that a "second wave" involving biological attacks had been thwarted upon the arrest of Al Qaeda members who had been intended to provide logistical support. 

Various doctors, both foreign and American, are associated with Al Qaeda leaders or operatives, to include the doctors Abdul Qadoos Khan, a bacteriologist from Rawalpindi and Aafia Siddiqui, PhD, from Karachi. Microbiologist Abdul Qadoos Khan was charged along with his son, Ahmed, for harboring the fugitives. As of March 28, 2003, he was in a hospital for a cardiac problem and had been granted "pre-arrest bail." Yet all you read about is the arrest of the son Ahmed Abdul Qadoos, who receives a stipend from the UN for being officially low-IQ due to lead poisoning. 

It was Khalid Mohammed who told authorities about MIT-trained biologist Aafia Siddiqui, who at one time was thought to be traveling with a Florida "Atta level" pilot. All the Pakistani press reported that she was nabbed in Karachi after being spotted at the international airport on March 29. It was not until three weeks later that NBC, relying on an unnamed senior official, first reported her captured. For the longest time, no US newspaper had yet reported that she was captured and instead stories continued to state that the FBI is seeking her for questioning. If the sources relied upon by these journalists did not even know (or would not reveal) that Aafia had been caught, why do these reporters think they know what's going on in the Amerithrax matter? Amerithrax is a confidential investigation. The Pakistan ISI and CIA rarely grant press interviews in connection with an ongoing manhunt. As agent Van Harp, head of the Amerithrax investigation has said, the information coming from Khalid Mohammed is classified with the authorities releasing only certain limited information. 

According to the Pakistan reports, Aafia Siddiqui was spotted at the international airport and detained (after she was followed to a relative's house). Some reports say she was coming from abroad, but the original report the others are all copying say she was coming from "upcountry." (Karachi is in the south). The reports say she is suspected of having been a member of Al Qaeda's "Chemical Wire Group." Perhaps something got lost in the translation, but the phrase "Chemical Wire Group" has appeared in all the english Pakistan and India papers. 

Officials have not publicly confirmed anything about the detention or interrogation. There still is a very hot pursuit of the "Atta-level" Florida pilot that Siddiqui is thought to have known and been assisting. He is said by one FBI agent to be "very, very, very" dangerous. The United States truly no longer have time for faulty analysis or politically-based preconceptions. 

Second, the media coverage has been seriously confused on the issue of motive and the reason Senators Daschle and Leahy would have been targeted-- tending to simplistically view them as "liberals." Zawahiri likely targeted Senators Daschle and Leahy to receive anthrax letters, in addition to various media outlets, because of the appropriations made pursuant to the "Leahy Law" to military and security forces. That money has prevented the militant islamists from achieving their goals. Al Qaeda members and sympathizers feel that the FBI's involvement in muslim countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Indonesia, and the Philippines interferes with the sovereignty of those countries. Indeed, the "Leahy Law" had one of its most well-known applications in Indonesia. Senator Leahy was Chairman of both the Judiciary Committee overseeing the FBI and Appropriations Subcommittee in charge of foreign aid to these countries. In late September 2001, it was announced that the President was seeking a blanket waiver that would lift all restrictions on aid to military and security units in connection with pursuing the militant islamists. 

This extradition and imprisonment of Al Qaeda leaders, along with US support for Israel and the Mubarak government in Egypt, remains foremost in the mind of Dr. Zawahiri. At the height of the development of his biological weapons program, his brother was extradited and executed pursuant to a death sentence in the "Albanian returnees" case. It's hard to keep up with the stories about billion dollar appropriations, debt forgiveness, and loan guarantees to countries like Egypt and Israel and now even Pakistan -- and those appropriations pale in comparison to the $75 or $87 billion in a "Supplemental" appropriation relating to the invasion of Iraq. Al Qaeda had a motive in mind. 

In his Fall 2001 book titled Knights under the Banner of the Prophet, Zawahiri argued that the secular press was telling "lies" about the militant islamists -- to include the suggestion that the militant islamists were somehow the creation of the United States in connection with expelling the Russians from Afghanistan. Zawahiri argued instead that they have been active since the assassination of Anwar Sadat in Egypt because of the treaty between the Camp David Accord and the resulting peace treaty between Egypt and Israel. The anthrax letters were sent on the date of the Camp David Accord and then the date Anwar Sadat was assassinated as if to underscore the point to anyone paying attention. Most of the "talking heads" on television, however, knew only that Daschle and Leahy were liberal democrats and did not know anything of Al Qaeda beyond what they read in the newspapers. 

Third, this tactic of letters is not merely the modus operandi of these militant islamists inspired by Zawahiri, it is their signature. The islamists sent letter bombs in January 1997 to newspaper offices in New York City and Washington, D.C. in connection with the earlier bombing of the World Trade Center and the imprisonment of the blind sheik, Sheik Abdel Rahman. The former leader of the Egyptian Al- Gamaa al-Islamiya ("Islamic Group"), he was also a spiritual leader of Al Qaeda. The letter bombs were sent in connection with the treatment of the Egyptian islamists imprisoned for the earlier attack on the WTC and a related plot.

The purpose of the letter bombs -- which resulted in minimal casualty -- was to send a message. (There is an outstanding $2 million reward). There was no claim of responsibility. There was no explanation. Once one had been received, the next ten, mailed on two separate dates, were easily collected. Sound familiar? Two bombs were also sent to Leavenworth, where a key WTC 1993 defendant was imprisoned, addressed to "Parole Officer." 

Abdel Rahman's son was captured in Quetta, Pakistan in mid-February 2003. That arrest in turn led to the dramatic capture of Khalid Mohammed, Al Qaeda's #3. Mohammed was hiding in the home of the Pakistani bacteriologist Dr. Abdul Qadoos Khan. Along with Zawahiri, Abdel Rahman and his two sons have long had considerable influence over Bin Laden. He reportedly treated them like sons. Zawahiri and OBL are Rahman's friends; Mohammed is Yousef's uncle. 

A sender purporting to be islamist sent cyanide in both early 2002 and early 2003 in New Zealand and ingredients of nerve gas in Belgium in 2003. There's even a chapter titled "Poisonous Letter" in the Al Qaeda manual. Just because Al Qaeda likes its truck bombs and the like to be effective does not mean they don't see the value in a deadly missive. As Brian Jenkins once said, "terrorism is theater." 

The mailer's use of Greendale School is revealing. Documents establish that Zawahiri used "school" as a code word for Al Qaeda in his correspondence. Green symbolizes Islam and was the Prophet Mohammed's color. By Greendale School, the anthrax perp was being cute, just as Yazid Sufaat was being cute in naming his lab Green Laboratory Medicine. "Dale" means "river valley." Greendale refers to green river valley -- i.e., Cairo's Egyptian Islamic Jihad or the Islamic Group. The sender is announcing that he is of either Egyptian Islamic Jihad, Egyptian Islamic Group or Jihad-al Qaeda, which is actually the full name of the group after the 1998 merger of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad and al Qaeda. 

Fourth, as to opportunity, though seldom reported, there is a wealth of "open source" information about possible Al Qaeda or Egyptian Islamic Jihad or Islamic Group in the United States and Canada. The public information relates to those suspected sleepers who have been detained. 

Finally, a number of additional miscellaneous leads in the investigation are consistent with Al Qaeda's responsibility. The issues are marked by conflicting evidence. But all of the issues are consistent with Al Qaeda's responsibility, to include: 

a. FBI's Profile The FBI's profile includes a US-based supporter of the militant islamists. Attorney General Ashcroft has always said that an "either-or" approach is not useful.(58) The media has tended to overlook the fact that when the FBI uses the word "domestic" the word includes a US-based, highly-educated supporter of the militant islamists. The media's perception notwithstanding, the FBI, for its part, was always vigorously testing a number of alternative hypotheses. The FBI has said that authorities do not know whether the perp is American or Foreign. Asked if the possibility of an overseas perpetrator (or, for example, a US-based supporter of the militant islamists) is still open, an investigator said last year, "Absolutely. Until we get a good suspect identified, we're looking at all theories." 

b. Hijacker Ahmed's Blackened Leg Lesion The hijacker Ahmed Alhaznawi appears to have contracted cutaneous anthrax in Afghanistan. It's reasonable to credit his statement that he got the lesion after bumping into a suitcase he was carrying at a camp in Afghanistan. The lesion is further evidence of Al Qaeda's anthrax production program in Afghanistan. 

c. Inquiries About Cropdusters The reported inquiries about cropdusters demonstrate what is at stake. In early June 2003, a CIA report concluded that the reason for Atta's and Zacarias Moussaoui's inquiries into cropdusters was in fact for the contemplated use in dispersing biological agents such as anthrax. It has long been known Osama Bin Laden was interested in using cropdusters to disperse biological agents (since the testimony of millennium bomber Ahmed Ressam). 

d. Jennifer Lopez Letter There is a substantial question whether the letter to AMI, the publisher of the National Enquirer, was a goofy love letter to Jennifer Lopez enclosing a Star of David. 

e. Fort Lee, New Jersey $100,000 Processor One potential lead concerned a Fort Lee New Jersey $100,000 processor possibly of a type that could have been used to weaponize the anthrax. The processor was paid for in cash after a check-kiting scheme. The processor was delivered to a business front in Ft. Lee at 215 Main St. The address was 1 mile from pilot Nawaf al-Hazmi at 96 Linwood Plaza, one of the two hijackers who had attended the January 2000 meeting with anthrax technician Yazid Sufaat. 

f. Suspected Pakistan Anthrax The "confirmed cases" of anthrax in Karachi, Pakistan, unless a "false positive," have always pointed to the Karachi connection also evidenced by the time spent there in the Fall of 2001 by Khalid Mohammed and Yazid Sufaat. 

g. Presence of Silica in the Spore Mixture (but not as a Special Coating) The presence of silica in the spore mixture is notable in light of Al Qaeda's recommendation of using a silicone sealant to wipe the inside of the envelope in sending a "Poisonous Letter." Former Russian bioweaponeer Dr. Alibek -- along with Harvard's Dr. Meselson -- have explained that there was no special silica coating and that the silica served no special purpose in "weaponization." Dr. Alibek and Dr. Meselson have explained that while silica was, in fact, detected, anthrax spores have an unusual tendency to pick up silica from their environment. Here, the Al Qaeda manual specifically instructed to wipe the envelope with a silicone sealant -- containing up to one- third treated fumed silica -- so as to not kill the mailman. Alternatively, Alibek explains that silica, commonly used as an anti- caking agent, may have simply been used as part of the spraydrying process. The developing consensus seems to be that (1) a co-current (two-nozzle) spraydryer was used, (2) with silica, and (3) the silica served to enhance floatability. 

h. Atta's Travels to Prague and the Alleged Iraq Connection. The present evidence relating to Atta's travel to Prague does not warrant a conclusion that Al Qaeda obtained the Ames strain from Iraq. Iraq, however, remains a possible source of the Ames. Former Russian bioweaponeer Ken Alibek has said that a key Russian scientist assisted Iraq and that Russia had the Ames strain. Zawahiri traveled to Baghdad in 1998 with an entourage to attend the birthday party of Saddam's son. The papers found at headquarters of the Mukhabarat, Iraq's secret police, show that an entourage from Al Qaeda group was sent to the Iraqi capital in March 1998 from Sudan. According to at least some reports, Bin Laden rejected the suggestion of a closer alliance -- preferring to pursue his own concept of jihad. Politics is indeed complicated. 

i. Ladies and Germs Only time will tell whether the FBI profilers betting on a lone male will have to fold their hands. 

j. Know Not Just Your Enemy, But Who He Knew: Zawahiri's Travels to the US Zawahiri's mission in the United States in 1995 was to do spadework for terrorism, not fundraising. He traveled under an alias and was accompanied by a US Army sergeant. What mosques exactly did they visit and who did they meet? The "Hatfill theory" seems to have been exhausted or at least lost public favor. 

k. The Malaysian Microsoft Letter Is the medium the message? 

l. Greendale School at Franklin Park: The Return to Fort Lauderdale and 9/11 As the USA Today explains, the pursuit of Al Qaeda keeps coming back to Florida. 

The "Hatfill theory" accusing Dr. Stephen Hatfill was always highly dubious. The suspicion was founded on many false premises, and there was no reliable evidence indicating his guilt. The FBI's fixation on Hatfill (at least as rumored by some reporters) may have stemmed from a warning by one Senator that careers hung in the balance. Leahy's chief of staff started with the strong predisposition that some right-winger was involved because two liberal democrats had been targeted. The Hatfill theory -- to include ongoing interviews and ongoing 7/24 surveillance by 8 surveillance specialists -- is now the subject of a pending civil rights claim of uncertain merit. The statute of limitation for the libel suit threatened against the New York Times expired in most jurisdictions the first week in July 2003. The Hatfill Theory ironically may best be understood as an Al Qaeda theory, with a coincidental Malaysian connection adding to the other circumstances. 

For a more detailed discussion and linked references, 

anthraxandalqaeda dot com