Chinese military forces seizing the moment.

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Extra text to 30 September

Chinese president Hu Jintao ordered a preparedness for war at the Chinese armies. After a few minutes of thinking I understood the dimensions of this all and could not disagree with Mr. Hu Jintao.

Therefore the War Tribunal gives a formal order at the Chinese military forces:

All war plans made must oblige to at most one percent of population dead (for the entire estimated war).

Furthermore the War Tribunal has stated before that the problems between China and Taiwan are considered an internal affair, since this now has legal status it is wise that the Chinese political leaders bring to the attention of Taiwan, the so called economical sanctions against America. The War Tribunal considers it unwise, bordering at complete madness, that now these sanctions are there, the Taiwanese order for over 18 billion of US$ military equipment. This large order of military goods is considered a so called 'material breach' of the economical sanctions against America.

The War Tribunal expresses understanding for the fact that the Taiwanese government is slightly misguided by American military advisers. May be the Taiwanese officials might take into consideration that American advisers serve the interests of America and not the interest of Taiwan.
Also the Chinese and Taiwanese officials must take into consideration that it is in the interests of America that other nations indulge with long and costly war with each other, since World War II this is standing policy of the USA.

In case the Taiwanese officials express a willingness to water down the impending military sales to below 5 billion, a conflict can be avoided.

In case the Taiwanese officials together with their American friends decide to take their chances on this subject, the War Tribunal invites the Chinese military forces to start planning operation PearlHarborReloaded. More explicit: In case the US military starts giving direct support to Taiwan, China can not give guarantees that neigboring US military bases will not get raided. China can not guarantee that nuclear bombs on US military bases in the neighborhood are a realistic scenario.

This must be crafted in careful diplomatic wordings of course, but when the Americans get to hear the words PearlHarborReloaded they will understand what it means. And they will drop willingness to give direct military support to Taiwan since the War Tribunal has stated that this is an internal affair and therefore this has now legal status.

Furthermore the Chinese diplomats and military forces must take into account that the US army might be stretched thinly, the US navy and US air force is not.

So that's it for the time being, in short:

The maximum level of at most one percent of civil casualties must be taken into account.
The War Tribunal considers the problems between Taiwan and China an 'internal affair'.
The 18 billion US$ size of impending American weaponry to Taiwan is too large, advice is watering down to at most 5 billion US$ size (but the 18 billion contract is from a few years back and I have no delivery list right here, what counts is the date of the economical sanctions against America and that is 14 August 2004...).
It is in the interest of America if rivals on the world stage indulge in costly and long lasting wars, this is standard policy since 60 years.
To counter direct involvement of the US military an operation PearlHarborReloaded must be planned in advance.

Good luck with the diplomacy and the rest,

Sincerely yours,

Reinko Venema,
Chairman War Tribunal.

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Extra note, the 18 US$ shipping contains the next more or less defensive weaponry:

A $18bn US arms package agreed in 2001 is due to provide Taiwan with a series of defensive systems - four ex-US Navy destroyers, eight diesel submarines, 12 P-3 Orion anti-submarine aircraft and a number of anti-ship missiles, artillery pieces and helicopters.

Subsequently the US agreed to sell Taiwan the advanced Patriot anti-missile system PAC-3, which would be its main defence against any Chinese ballistic attack.

The issue of an offensive capability was raised recently by Taiwanese Premier Yu Shyi-kun, who said that if China was able to attack cities in Taiwan, then Taiwan should be able to respond.

"If you attack Taipei and Kaohsiung, I should at least be able to strike Shanghai," he declared.

Comment: So that is all there is, it all looks a bit defensive indeed (although I do not know the capabilities of the eight diesel submarines). It can very well be a storm in a glass of water, on the other hand it is understandable that the Chinese political layers get more and more angered by the Taiwanese. While when you ask the average Chinese in the street they do not care much upon a 20+ million size people.

At last there is that one fundamental point upon I just do not know a good answer; Are (parts of) countries that want to spilt up entitled to a referendum? (The formal Beijing standpoint is that it needs to be all of China in that referendum.)
I do not know if this entitlement for a referendum can be made abstract (and not dependent upon the circumstances). In this case the Beijing standpoint is weird given the different population numbers involved (Taiwan = 20+ million, China = 1.3 billion people. Guess who would win the referendum?)

That's it for the time being.

Back to Part 37

The Chinese military forces preparing for war.