And what about Iraq?


Posted 27 Jan 2003 / Written 23 Jan 2003.

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ThisOldCity, date postmark.


Introduction to this story: This date was long waited for, at first this seemed to be the truly final date but now it seems as if the weapon inspections could continue for some time. Also the US did promise lately to bring some kind of proof at the scene after the weapon report is handed to the UN.
We just wait and see what this proof is and how the Iraqi army reacts on this.

And what about Iraq?  

Posted 27 January 2003.


Yes, what about Iraq? Lets answer this with a set of answers and comments via the following summary:

A) Background, aftermath of Gulf war I and what about weapons of mass destruction?
B) The economical sanctions.
C) The given situation right now, the role of the UN, the USA and of course Iraq.
D) Some consequences of going to war with a focus on the so called collateral damage and the differences compared with previous wars.


As for D) it is wise to know this (may be) war will be different from previous wars because this will be the first one with 'instant retaliation'. What this means you can read below or go directly.  


A) Background;

Most of us know a bit or more than a bit about the previous Gulf war and I could start spelling some emotion given that '300 babies left to die' propaganda told to the Senate. Or bring into memory again that at some point in time journalists did not have entry to the end to the orgy of violence on the road of death because some generals did say 'If you see that, this will be the end of warfare.' No, why should I? The Pentagon knows exactly what they have in front of themselves with me. So lets turn to the aftermath: 

A few years later, lets think about 1993 to 1996 to the Iraqi army it would come clear that it might be unwise to keep too much of the so called 'forbidden stuff' around. May be the political leadership was also thinking beside those lines but one cannot tell right now. Right now in 2003 we are into one or more of the following:

I) Weapons and the means to deliver to the USA and/or allies are still there right now.
II) Most is nicely wiped out, but small stuff to be used in terrorist attacks are still around. Or;
III) All illegal stuff is wiped out as far as possible to avoid some betrayer given some chance.

Of course the UN and the USA would like to see that I) and II) are not at the scene in Iraq. This for the background, lets go to point B).


B) The economical sanctions.

As far as I am concerned, I want an end to the sanctions one way or the other. Since all 'one ways' in the last decade did not work we find our selves back into this other way.

From the sanctions people die and from a war people will die, where is more wisdom found? Into not going to war and let the sanctions work on with their negative fallout or going into war and see where it all ends?

Difficult to judge but again, the sanctions must come to an end one way or the other. And all in all the USA plays a major role into the lifting of the economical sanctions. The political leadership of Iraq has to ask if they can take another decade of economical punishment this way and they simply must do what is in the interest of the Iraqi people in the long term.

On the one hand I can imagine that the leadership would not like to step down or even go into exile but on the other hand the Americans are relatively safe within my claws (see point D), so simply do what is best for your people in the long run.

Again just speaking for myself; 'Saddam I made it rough for you, but if I drop my previous questions at your address would you consider being a wise statesman?'.

Last remark; the sanctions are ended one way or the other, this way of saying still applies to this situation.


C) The role of the UN, the USA and Iraq.

Very simple; the UN is inspecting in Iraq right now and the UN has the last word on it. The USA is expected to keep pressure on this because international institutions often face heavy internal bureaucracy problems, I just observe the pressure is good (not to much and not to little).

The role of Iraq is also simple; just tell the plain truth as you as individual people know it. I do not know the exact details but lately there was a scientist shot to death after making some statements, to many of these kind of stories are simply not acceptable to me.

So try and tell truth only and let the UN have the last word on it, but after to many 'strange stories' the patience of the USA will fade away. That is a fact of life too and therefore we have the next part.


D) Instant retaliation emerging from collateral damage.

What difficult to be diplomatic in the above, I am pleased to arrive at this point. Let me be specific, it is of great importance that the journalists do their detailed 'fact work' as good as possible. Also it is of importance that Iraqi people have some kind of channel to report civil losses (counted carefully and send outside the country to reach the press agencies).

After the news is published, for example on Monday 13.35 local time it takes 3 days for the start of the retaliation period of 7 days. Very simple, retaliation time is from Thursday 13.35 until a week later Thursday 13.35. In between try a bit 'body for body' so not a thousand kilo 'fertilizer solution' for a small number of civilian losses, also please keep bio & chemical stuff out for the moment and let it be a 'bang solution' every time.

If not retaliated, those civil losses will glide into the so called 'Moral equation' (not important right here, ask your local terror organization...).

You could ask me 'Who would like to retaliate Iraqi civilians?' but I am sorry I do not know. To be honest I do not have a clue whatsoever about who would do these kind of things. All I know is that according to leading 'anti-terrorist' experts all kind of terror groups would give it a try in case a war in Iraq would be around.

And who am I to go against this kind of wisdom? Yes, who am I?


If these were not the 'fact files' to this long story I would write that I am some BigSmith who is hammering all terror organizations into a BigSword. And this is hammered with Infinite Justice. But since we are in the 'fact finding' part we have to say that if this war goes on we will not have 'eye for an eye' but more 'body for body'. Let me end with this and let me wish you luck on all the missions you have to for fill. (And to the American pilots flying the war planes I would like to say "You are not a sissy when you do not drop your bombs two times on a row, please don't forget that!")

You are at the end, for myself I hope there will be no war and the sanctions ended. For the rest I do not care right now, I just hope for the best but when you look at the situation right now we have severe reasons to fear a war. We have.






End of story.

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