The contest surrounding Military Bloody Day (period) number five;
Who wins the Blue Footed Crane Trophy this time?


Posted 30 November  2003.

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Introduction: given the success of the so called Military Bloody Days into the Iraqi war (every time the resistance scaled up a bit) I found wisdom in making some kind of contest into MBD number five.

The contest was simple; That party (a cell, an individual, a collection of cells striking simultaneously and so on and so on) the killed most coalition soldiers wins the Blue Footed Crane Trophy. Although I did not explicit ask for this the Afghanis decided to jump into the contest too (that was a big compliment to me, so thank you for this).

So the contest was rather simple in nature, but the pointing out of the winner is more difficult. Simply the lack of sharp details reported via the (Western) media surrounding attacks make it difficult. Also it is wise to make a few robust models to valuate attacks (because very likely Military Bloody Day number 10 will be another contest number).  


Military Bloody Day five (the first contest) Go 
Military Bloody Day ten (the second contest) Go

How to valuate the attacks made in the context of a contest?

A very simple model is as follows:

X = the number of soldiers killed in the attack
Y = the number of civilians killed in the attack

a = the value of a civilian
b = the value of a soldier

With these simple four building stones you can make the number of points as:

P = bX - a


Although very simple in nature (because in reality a high ranking US military figure is more important to wipe out then some 'college kid soldier') there are instantly a lot of moral questions posed with this model. Let me give you a few examples to show where the morality is found:

Example one: a = 0 and b = 1. 

So the number of points is simply the number of soldiers killed and you do not give a shit whatsoever about how many civilians die in the attack. And although this simple model was used in a lot of 20 century wars, as a person I think that all 'military leaders' who just work along lines like these are of 'doubtful moral behavior'. 

In practice even a lot of political leaders did linger around negative values of a (think for example at the bombing of Bremen, the bombing of Rotterdam and the throwing of the first nukes during World War II). And if you understand what I try to say at sometimes it is clear that I oppose all 'non positive alphas'. 

Example two: a = 1 and b = 10. 

This means of course 'A soldier is worth as much as ten civilians', that might look like some moral improvement of placing attacks (and making war in general). It would be some improvement if actual warfare would concentrate upon this a little bit, but this has its drawbacks too. For example suppose somewhere 50 soldiers are together in the midst of 200 civilians and suppose furthermore that the impending attack has 99% likelihood of 'total wipe out', in case the total wipe out materializes the number op points would be 300 (= 10*50 - 200).

So according to this simple model the attack looks wise but in the end there are a four times as many civilians dead compared to killed soldiers...

Example three: a = infinite and b = 1. 

All military mindsets on the face of this little planet are invited to think upon making warfare possible within this 'infinite alpha' stuff. That is all I have to say right now, just think for yourself and in the meantime the platoon of the WarTribunal will raid the institution of the old doctrines of warfare again and again.   

After all this theory it might be wise to look at a practical detail. I have selected the result to Military Bloody Day number four. The graphics from Mosul (Iraq) speak for themselves, just two US helicopters but done so perfectly. Just so perfectly, or not? 

Title: Aftermath detail from Military Bloody Day number four (Mosul, Iraq).


Later to be updated, more pages needed. Look below, we just had MBD 5 so what to do with the rest?

Military Bloody Day five (the first contest) Go 
Military Bloody Day ten (the second contest) Go


(Also make a list of the results to all Military Bloody Days? And what about the Civil Bloody Month August with that stupid Bush only making his condolences blast in blast out? I just hate stupid organizations and stupid people and this US administration is stupid to the bone! Oops, I am gliding away from the mainstream of this story...

To updates so to say). 






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