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Ahold and WorldCom fun.


Date;  End Feb 2003.
Ahold and WorldCom fun is together just under 150 billion dollar fun. This is so called 'big fun'.

Timeline date=End Feb 2003.


Lets first fly in some little facts surrounding the WorldCom stuff; long time ago on a Friday after relatively long not mentioning the NightmareOnWallStreet I wrote words like:

But there is a NightMareOnWallStreet, yes there is a big big bad apple on WallStreet. And this big big bad apple is a NightMareOnWallStreet.

And the Monday after the WorldCom stuff did surface, I do not remember the exact details but it was something like 137 billion dollar of market cap was gone. But I do not remember of this was the whole of WorldCom or that it was just some Monday fun, it's not important right now.
It just happened and I think there is some chance that it was triggered via the above blue words, this could be explained via some big fear some market parties must have for me. But since I do not have any clue whatsoever about the size of this 'some chance' I did not want to mention this WorldCom stuff into these timeline files.
Now we have some nice Ahold too and therefore the 'WorldCom event' is included as well, WorldCom was just some 'Nightmare' reciting and the Americans reacted very well (because WorldCom does (did) a lot of the Pentagon telephone traffic I was very pleased with this, very pleased I was). Lets turn to the Ahold details:


In the week from 17 Feb 2003 I changed the so called NightmareOnWallStreet into the AngelOnWallStreet. For four entire days on a row I told the dear Americans.

On Monday 24 Feb the stock of Ahold collapsed a nice 63.0% (one cent more or less stock value left would give a bigger discrepancy towards the minus 63%) and when this fact settled down in my mind I felt very good very peaceful. It sure is a pity I cannot study the buy&sell details from that day in detail, I do not know how to reach those details so I will not try that. No, I will make some nice statistic out of this 63.0% and we now take a look at some strange zero hypothesis:

H0 : All buying&selling Ahold stock was without some 'infinite justice', against 
Ha : Spontaneous 'infinite justice' at the scene.  

On the assumption that the NightmareOnWallStreet did burn away many hundreds of billions one could argue that (some) Americans would like to do some 'pay back'. If we furthermore make the assumption that the four day period of 'Angel time' made some Americans very pissed (may be they felt as if I was playing with them...) we can produce the following statistic:

Critical values could be found around 26, 39 or 63% decline or 'left over' value. Since the value of Ahold was around 10 euro the Friday before and since one cent is the smallest quantum of this value and since one cent is 0.1% we can say that critical values are:

25.9%  26.0%  26.1%
38.9%  39.0%  39.1% and
62.9%  63.0%  63.1%. 
In total 0.9% (for decline) and 0.9% (left over value) gives 1.8% as the size of the critical area.   

And since we observe the value of 63.0% decline we can say this is some critical value and therefore we could reject the zero hypothesis. Remark this is only done because we made some assumptions about the behavior of American so called 'investors'. If I could take the time and do some statistics on the raw data from the order book I could arrive at total different kind of useable statistics. 
So if you as a reader have access to this order book and you can analyze the above hypothesis much better, why don't you do that and please update me a bit with the results (and if you find the opposite, so the H0 is to be accepted, please inform me about that too....).


We arrive at the end, at first I did not want to place WorldCom in these timeline event files because I wanted to use them for a theme called Fear Management. Now we had the nice Ahold at the scene I had to change plans and this file is the change. The statistic used above is a bit shaky and it is completely based upon some kind of hate. 
In practice I cannot understand why some American folks would like to hate me, I think they love me and it was only love that made them give me this nice 63.0% gift. Because we must not forget that a lot of hedge funds made some dollars that day.
Because after all, they are still Americans....

End of the stock fun, what is the future for those markets? Will we observe true and real Stock Wars and will the lowest of the Dutch AEX be below 150? And what about Annie and the DOW; will Annie smash the DOW finally below 7000 or does the Angel do a good seducing job on her?
Now I feel a bit like a soap script writer; what do you think my dear reader; Will the Angel seduce Annie or will she resist his (evil) smile? 



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