(25 June 2008) It is tempting to comment on the
relative spike there is in US military deaths in Iraq and
Afghanistan, but I won't.
It is tempting to make a fool of the ECB prez
Jean Claude Trichet who truly thinks that inflation is anchored
here in Europe, but I won't.
No, today we look at the ease banks still
collect fresh capital. Who are those sucker investors who bring
their money to the big ovens? Don't you think it isn't amazing?
Invest now in banks?????
Via the Winter blog I found a nice article (source),
As of last Friday, North American banks had raised $158 billion in capital since the third quarter of 2007, almost matching the $175 billion in losses they reported during that period, according to J.P. Morgan Chase.
Comment: Isn't this amazing? 158 US$ in fresh
capital and who are those sucker investors? These so called
'investors' don't have a clue how banks work with their off
balance items (that don't count in the reserves), their Level 3
assets who are not measurable, their this and their that.
Lets just look at one more of the amazing
details in the article, quote:
For instance, at the same time Wachovia announced a net loss of $350 million in mid-April, it said it had sold $3.5 billion worth of common stock and $3.5 billion of preferred. Mr. Welshimer noted that some banks, such as Wachovia, have tried to pre-market offerings to make sure they get sufficient interest from investors and also to be able to mitigate bad news about losses with the announcement about fresh capital.
Comment: The sucker investors simply do not
understand that when Wachovia raises 7 billion while posting only
350 million losses, future losses will simply amount to 7 billion
Luckily there is
no problem for me; With the policies of Alan Greenspan an awful
lot of non productive capital was pumped into the US banking
system and economy. All this excess capitol has to be burned away
before that economy can function properly again. Banks selling
stocks or whatever what is a good way to burn money.
Anyway it is better compared to investment in food and commodities
because those investors are the real sucker investors from the
Rape Pillage and Plunder Investments...
Lets leave it with that, till updates.
(24 June 2008, temporary update) Long awaited:
Two important statistics!
Statistic one: About US corporate earnings,
mostly the S&P index (source)
Second quarter profits are expected to fall at a rate of 10.2 percent, compared with the Monday estimate for a drop of 9.6 percent. At the end of May, analysts expected a 7.3 percent drop.
A worsening outlook for consumer discretionary and financials was behind the bleaker earnings view.
Comment: Long have I been waiting for stuff
like that, also these are only expectations... If true, the US
stock markets needs to decline at least 10% in this quarter.
Statistic two: Case Shiller housing index (source)
The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metro areas fell 1.4 percent in April from March and slumped by a record 15.3 percent over the year.
Economists expected prices for the 20-city index to fall 2.0 percent in the month and 15.9 percent from April 2007, according to the median forecast in a Reuters survey.
S&P said its composite index of 10 metro areas slid 1.6 percent in April for a record 16.3 percent annual drop.
Comment: 15.3% decline year on year means
over 3 trillion of US family housing lost equity this year... For
me it is still funny to observe that there is absolutely no talk
whatsoever on numbers like this in the mainstream media. Ha! How
come that those millionaires from CNBC never talk about that?
And why not do some easy to understand
From March to April house prices declined
1.4% in the 20 metro areas.
That is 1.014^12 = 1.18 thus 18% year on
Hence: luck is on my side because the monthly
decline is still above real year on year decline; we have not
reached the turning point yet. We must be cautious because I did
not build the calculations on a raw data set but it was retreived
from the media sources mentioned above. But it is reasonable to
suspect the turning point still ain't there.
(19 June 2008) Today I found a sad update from
oil actions from the Iraqi puppet regime. Although it is now 2008
they still abide by the classic definition of a puppet regime.
What has this puppet regime done when it comes to building
hospitals in Iraq? Practically nothing, and on a whole lot more
they constantly prove they are just another puppet regime.
Let me name four oil companies, here they
Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total and BP.
According to this iht
file they have reaped the new oil contracts. I am mad beyond
hell with my anger. The Kurdish were allowed to place the new
contracts and even when names like 'Hunt oil' from Dallas entered
the scene, I kept my mouth shut.
This time I will not keep my mouth shut: We
cannot have the pre Saddam oil companies take over like nothing
has happened like for example the one million deaths from the
economical sanctions against Iraq. And so after I invited the
Afghanis I again remember you folks of the impending Military
Bloody Day that is located at 26 July this year...
And so, if the Iraqis have any pride left, do
they allow the old oil companies to provide more profits to fatbag
Americans? And give rise to the old oil powers again? I don't
think so and I call on the Iraqis to make the US military pay for
their Rape Pillage and Plunder investments they are making.
Let me quote from the iht file:
"There is an enormous amount of oil in Iraq," Raymond said. "We were part of the consortium, the four companies that were there when Saddam Hussein threw us out, and we basically had the whole country."
Comment: And big oil still wants that country
back, for example because lately they have some demand problems.
Would the Iraqis like to be some real population or do we have
future stuff like 'we basically had the
Better kill the slime before the slime kills
(18 June 2008) In this update I want to look at
Item one) Wise words from hedge fund manager
Paulson, he thinks there will be about 1.3 trillion in down
writings related to the US housing market.
Item two) Some analyst(s) from the Royal Bank
of Scotland foresee a stock market crash of about 25% somewhere in
the next three months.
Item three) We ponder if financials will
again decline another 50% from the present values.
So lets begin with
Item one) Let me quote (source):
June 18 (Bloomberg) -- John Paulson, founder of the hedge fund company Paulson & Co., said global writedowns and losses from the credit crisis may reach $1.3 trillion, exceeding the International Monetary Fund's $945 billion estimate.
Comment: Since this Paulson has made giant
profits from the US housing decline his words carry more weight
than the words of a lot of other folks. From the IMF we know
already they are dumb beyond the Piccadilly circus and my
estimation is: two trillion or more. Let me explain in a nutshell:
When you study US median house prices and US
median income for the period 1996 to 2006 you arrive at the
conclusion that from the top the median house price will decline
And 50% of total US family housing equity is something like 10 to
12 trillion US$.
If from that decline in family house equity only one fifth makes
it to the books of the financial institutions you have two
trillion in direct down writings related to the jokes Alan
So far for item one, we proceed with
Item two) Let me quote (source):
The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
Comment: In the months before the collapse of
Bear Stearns Cos I too thought that the crash scenario was the
most likely, but at present the US Federal Reserve has five
programs of 'providing liquidity' so instant crashes are avoided
that way. Therefore the scenario known as 'death by a thousand
cuts' is still the prevailing scenario.
Although inflation is rapidly rising (and the Central Banks did
not foresee that!) I still view this as another squeeze on the
profits of companies, but I have to admit that this squeeze is
even broader compared to the credit crunch.
My estimation is that stocks will decline a lot more but that
there are no reasons to expect a sudden tsunami in stock decline.
Look for example at how easy the banks collected more and more
money to 'strengthen their balance sheets'; this only proofs that
there is still a large pool of sucker investors out there who have
too much money and too little brains because any idiot could see
you must not invest in banks...
This brings us to the latest item:
Item three) In the picture below you can see
what giving up the golden standard did for the US financials. In
this world of fiat money they almost made it to 25% of total
market cap and that is a bit strange don't you think?
Don't get me wrong, I am not advertising for going back to the
golden standard, but in my humble opinion a commercial bank is
just like a water company; important because you can't live
without them but regulate them otherwise they will choke you...
My dear reader, make up your own mind: Having
financials being such a large part of total market cap, is that
healthy for the economy in the long run?
(The picture is from Societe Generale and I
found it via Barry)
(13 June 2008, updated 15 June) Today I feel like preaching to
the ECB but first we have this:
Exactly five months ago (see this Financial
2 update from 13 Jan) I gave some prize to Chinese and
Kuwaitis for the most stupid mega deal for the year 2008. (They
were that dumb to invest about 5 billion in one of those weird
And although we have observed hundreds and hundreds of so called
'experts' stating the credit crisis was almost over, my analysis
of the situation is still standing and I am sorry to say but this
whole crisis is not over by far.
Before we proceed with preaching to the
European Central Bank I would like to explain the difference
between 'embedded' and 'anchored' inflation.
Anchored inflation is a situation where there
is indeed inflation but workers cannot demand higher wages so a
lethal 'price wage spiral' can be avoided.
Embedded inflation is a situation where the
working population expects continuing inflation and thus will do
their very best to get enough wage increases to compensate for the
So far the theory, lets now look at just some
facts from the last time:
Fact 1) ECB President Jean Claude Trichet
thinks that European inflation is anchored, anyway he said so.
Fact 2) Today the last labor unions here in Holland made the deals
with the employer unions; result 3.3% more wage while the labor
unions started the negotiations with 3.5%.
Fact 3) Here in Holland consumer inflation stands at something
like 2.4% at the moment.
Fact 4) The labor unions reported that a record of strikes was
needed in order to get the desired results. (That is true, strikes
hit a multi year record.)
Conclusion: Here in Holland inflation is not
anchored but embedded.
Fact 5) In Spain shops are running empty only
because of protests against high fuel prices.
Conclusion: Likely the Spanish workers do not
like a Trichet anchor around their neck either.
Fact 6) For the most years the ECB has not
met her own 2% threshold on inflation and not met her money supply
threshold of 4.5%. Both were higher almost all of the time.
Conclusion: The European Central Bank, more
often than not, does not stick to her own mandate. If the ECB did
not stick to her mandate in those easy years, why should they do
it now? With every policy setting meeting they loose more and more
Fact 7) The Central Banks and the commercial
banks have created the present credit crisis, the Americans are
(as usual) most to blame but the Europeans kept silent during the
Conclusion: And now this Trichet mental dwarf
comes telling us we should keep wage demands low... Why not let
the banks pay for the mess they have created?
They did this although some governments are also to blame. The
Spanish and UK governments simply deserve their decline of real
estate, or not?
All in all: countries that sided the most with the USA not only
have the most problems but also create the most. The nations
pushing for lower and lower rates and more and more debt are the
ones who kill countless millions in the development nations
because our pension funds hang out the day trader on the food and
Don't forget that in the not so long ago past most food and metal
markets were globally just an average Nasdaq listing size
Of course most Central bankers do not know that, but what do
Central bankers know anyway?
Trichet the anchor of the Euro? I
don't think so...
We end this update with a funny note: I have
found a niche of the US housing market that is still booming, the
folks in those houses have 'gift wrapping rooms' and 'florist
is the fun.
That housing market is tale telling for eight years of Dubya; the
best US prez ever!
Update from 15 June:
On seekingalpha dot com was a nice article
about Central Banks fighting inflation, the title of the article
Will the World's Central Banks Successfully Fight Inflation?
The answer is of course a big NO because right now the ECB is
already 3 to 5 months too late and given the time delay at witch
rate increases work the stagflation scenario is still the most
likely at this point in time.
If you scroll down that article you can read my comment on it at
entry number 4.
On Bloomberg dot com you can find a nice
article about wage increases in Europe, let me quote a bit of fun
from there (source):
"One element of the ECB's analysis has changed quite substantially from before: the assessment of wage
Comment: If the ECB did not get it in the
last six months, they will not get it in the next six months. So
although rate hikes are desperately needed, they will rather
likely not do it for reasons still not understood by me.
This update was started with the most
stupid financial mega deal for the year 2008.
Today I found the most
stupid more pumping oil up deal done by Saudi Arabia. From
next month on rumors say the Saudis will pump up about 500
thousand extra barrels a day. Why is this the most stupid oil
There are dozens of reasons, let me name only
a few that carve some wood:
Reason 1) Daily shortage is about 1.5 to 1.6
million barrels a day, with the extra output it will be 1.0 to 1.1
a day. So the pension and hedge funds will keep on playing their
oil tricks on the oil futures markets.
Reason 2) Lately the Paulson clown (that is
the US Secretary of the Treasury) stated more than once that
speculation on oil markets was simply not true. It was only very
insignificant because 'futures follow the real markets'.
And with so much moral backwind the pension and hedge funds will
keep on buying more and more oil futures and roll them over month
in month out.
For me it is utterly weird to observe that
the Saudi oil sellers do not understand the nature of the oil
pricing mechanism; have they forgotten all those years when oil
was between 20 and 30 US$ a barrel? And they always nicely pumped
up more because the Americans said the global economy would suffer
if oil went too high?
The Saudis were slime in those years because the US economy
profited the most from the below 30 US$ level and now we are in
the endgame the USA speculators profit the most from the rise. So
again the Saudis are only slime.
Some folks call it a Mad Max economy but I
prefer Rape Pillage and Plunder Investments; if the Saudis are to
stupid to see what is actually happening it is not my problem. If
the Saudis willfully let this slaughter continue in the developing
nations, let Allah judge these slime heads
and not me...
(10 June 2008) Lately we have all kinds of
central bankers coming along, first we had the 'pretending to be
hawkish' Jean Claude Trichet telling folks that in the next
meeting we could see yes or no a rate hike. So that was idiot
number one because today we also had the yoy wholesale inflation
from Germany running at above 8%.
On the comments of idiot number one we
observed idiot number two named Bernanke from the US FED.
Idiot number two informed us that the
'downside risks' to the US economy were parked on Pluto and thus
it is time to look at the dollar value because there is a tiny
tiny relation with inflation.
After idiot one the Euro shot up to 1.58 US$.
After idiot two the Euro shot down to 1.55 US$.
The ECB should be ashamed of herself; they
turn their mandate into second hand toilet paper while in the mean
time pension funds make a stupid run on food and commodity
markets. And why not ask the Italians to leave the Euro, pick up
their beloved lire again and see what it does for Italian
In the meantime you sure must view the next
CNBC video where five Americans do not shout hard enough and enemy
combatant Dubya also throws a coin in, link:
After all that long term wisdom from that
video you can visit the Winter blog where I found that link:
And if you are still hungry about more of
that complicated financial stuff, why not hang out at Barry's
If after that you are still hungry, you are
some big beast and my advice to you is: Try to kill some
Americans, it does not have to be that coffin stuff but if you can
bring great fire power against those idiots you are my friend...;)
(08 June 2008) The main dish of this days update
is a message to the OPEC but we start with two times big big fun.
---Funny detail one: Finally the two bond
insurers where you could buy an AAA rating in case you didn't have
one are downgraded from their AAA status. About one trillion is
downgraded two notches and we are not talking about bank
investment vehicles. No no, down to earth municipal bonds and
stuff like that.
Wow, one trillion downgraded... That is expensive...;) Link:
---Funny detail two: For years and years I am
arguing that the information streams at the Pentagon are highly
dysfunctional. What did the Pentagon boyz & girlz do?
On 95 new weapon programs they are 300 billion over budget!
Ok it isn't victory but 300 billion is still 60% of one year non
war funding (war funding goes via borrowed and earmarked emergency
spending). US Senators speak about a 'crisis' but that is rubbish;
crafting new weaponry is so deeply rooted in the US society and
economy that this will survive for at least a year or two (may be
longer). The USA might give up the status of the US$, they might
give up this and they might give up that. But they will never give
up crafting new weaponry, that detail was already understood by me
in Oct 2001... Here is the Reuters fun:
And for the main dish:
When oil was before 120 US$ a barrel I
promised OPEC to update before it would breach 140. This is the
Last Friday the DOW Jones plunged almost 400
points while the price of a barrel of crude oil shot up almost 11
US$. So if there is any idiot left still saying that US investors
have nothing to do with the price of oil, commodities and food;
let this idiot stand up so we can identify you and kill you.
OPEC has been right all these years;
speculators are a big hinder for the normal evolution of prices in
regard with supply and demand for the wide array of oils there
are. From light sweet crude to heavy sour oil; the Western
economists know that we have to blame India and China.
But now these Western academics are standing
in their underpants; an oil hike of almost 11 US$ has never been
And OPEC has to understand that these Western academics tell the
same crap about food: it is China's hunger for meat that is to
In the meantime countless millions can't buy rice let alone meat.
I hope that the best investment that OPEC can
do right now is to keep the oil below the surface so future
generations can have some kind of life.
Weighing all in all I would say: No need to
pump up more oil. Better think of a relatively large third oil
market beside the two in the USA and Europe. And spread happiness
around the world, spread happiness instead of US weaponry
(06 June 2008) Today we will look of course at
the Federal Reserve Z1 release that came out yesterday. But first
we have some fun:
Only yesterday I mentioned that under the
Dubya regime the Americans can't even pay for their road maintenance
and today a Media report popped up on the Drudge report. I knew it
was bad but that it was this bad already is of course perfect
news; more and more the USA starts to look as some former
is the usatoday fun.
Now for the serious stuff: US debt growth of
the entire financial sector. As you can see in the table below the
debt of the US financial sector on herself is over one gross
domestic product. In the third column you see the Q on Q growth
and if you would annualize these figures you see that debt growth
in the financial sector is always a multiple of the gross domestic
outstanding debt all financial sectors. (source)
|Y and Q
||Total debt in bn
||Q on Q % change
||New debt needed Y on Y
||971.7 bn US$
||1321.2 bn US$
||1336.1 bn US$
||1484.4 bn US$
||2589.9 bn US$
||1432.7 bn US$
||827.4 bn US$
Since the debt in that part of the economy is
larger than an entire GDP you might think that the Americans have
a problem. Not some small problem but a giant problem in that
sector of the economy only...
So not the Americans; no financial journalist over there writes
upon such boring stuff. You will never find it in the minutes of
the Federal Reserve. But in fact it will break their military
might, this is obvious. It is also obvious that this happened
under the Dubya years of ruling America. For Dubya the economy is
easy to understand: All that matters is that people have money in
their pockets... Real money on the back of wealth creation or
borrowed money, to Dubya it is irrelevant.
Most Americans are relatively stupid and
think that the credit crisis is only something that is somehow
related to sub prime mortgages. Yet sub prime was only the weakest
link; the credit crisis is a big big squeeze on credit
When mid 2007 the credit crisis broke out, in
the last column you can see it's effect on debt growth in the US
financial sector. Now we have the 2008 Q1 figure in you see debt
growth was still 827.4 billion US$. If you withdraw this from the
total profits in the US financial sector you likely end up with a
negative figure. And this has been going on for many years.
All those who have large amounts of
outstanding debt still don't get it: Most of the outstanding debt
will never be paid back... If you think otherwise, please explain
how the combined US financial sector is going to pay back this 16
We close the day with a quote from the Winter
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. - Arthur Schopenhauer (1788 - 1860)
(05 June 2008, temporary update) I did some
thinking on the previous update, I did some typing on my
calculator and I arrived at a possible second explanation about
the one trillion collateral as absorbed by the US FED:
It might well be this is only a cumulative
number. And when you look a bit at the money streams in the other
programs this is the most likely explanation.
On the one hand this is a pity but on the other hand total
combined real reserves of the US commercial banks is 130 billion
in the negative right now. And who does not like the concept of
banks having negative real reserves and positive borrowed reserves?
It is a bit like a US citizen who borrows 10 thousand US$ from the
bank giving his SUV as collateral and after that says his savings
are 10 thousand US$...;)
Lets get serious: Tomorrow we have another Z1
release and I am waiting for weeks already. After all last
year I calculated that the US financial sector as a whole needs
2500 billion more debt in order to stay profitable in 2008. So
tomorrow is a very interesting day on that detail.
In another development in the Iraqi equation the
present US government tries to get 50 military bases, control of Iraqi airspace and legal immunity for all American soldiers and contractors.
So enemy combatant Dubya still tries to get the oil...
It is definitely worth an investigation: Is Dubya indeed the most
stupid US president ever? And, if confirmed, is the US population
also stupid because they not only voted once but twice for this
Ha, the stupid Americans! They never saw the housing crisis
coming, their roads are beyond repair because of lack of money and
the US financial system is the same mess as Iraq. Welcome to the
heritage of Dubya; the guy will be a long long footnote in history
about how not to run a world power...
is the independent file with the secret Dubya plan.
In the funny news department the DOW soared
over 200 points on retail sales (read more inflation) and labor
news (read insignificant news because of it's volatility).
Let me quote some retard named Goldman (source),
Alfred E. Goldman, chief market strategist at Wachovia Securities, contends the market is entering a stronger period because of investors' ability to not overreact to some bad news such as rising oil prices and a weak dollar and to focus instead on the retail sales and jobless claims numbers.
"What investors are doing is looking beyond the valley to the peaks ahead," he said. "The big picture is that we're in a market that's transitioning from a bear to a bull."
The Dow rose 213.97, or 1.73 percent, to 12,604.45.
It looks like the DOW traders get more and
more desperate because the next file found states that
foreclosures are still on the rise with more fun to come. Lets
quote some statistical fun (source):
In fact, Americans' equity in their homes -- usually their single biggest asset -- now has dropped to the lowest level on record in figures going back to the end of World War II. Homeowners' portion of equity fell to 46.2 percent, which means the amount of debt tied up in their homes exceeds the equity they have built up.
Comment: If this goes back to World War II
you can bet on it that HELOC loans are not included therefore a
35% figure is far more realistic. If it truly would be 46.2% we
would not have, quote from the same source:
The report also found that more homeowners slipped behind on their monthly payments. The delinquency rate jumped to 6.35 percent -- or 2.87 million loans -- compared with 5.82 percent for the previous three months. Payments are considered delinquent if they are 30 or more days past due.
Comment: I still am living in a dream world
and still there is no statistical detail observed that will
prevent the destruction of the US military might. Ok there will be
some stubbornness before the Americans start creating wealth from
work again, but that is their problem and my fun...;)
(03 June 2008, on 05 June added the second
explanation, see below) Today I viewed some very funny
news and I studied some real serious stuff. Lets start with the
The US Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke told
his audience via satellite that he was worried on inflation... And
he tried to sound hawkish...
I almost fell from my chair from laughter,
the idiot Bernanke has lowered rates so far that real rates are
negative. This induces a 'cash is trash' mentality and thus the
oil, food and commodity markets are flooded with money driving up
everything with an absurd speed. And after that this idiot comes
telling he is worried about inflation...
We finally have proof: Bernanke is indeed a
clone of Alan Greenspan!
The Clone worries...
And from the department of serious affairs we
Just a few days ago I informed you that I did
not understand much about what was happening at the New York FED.
In just a few days my knowledge has increased by a lot because I
came across this article from Barry Ritholz. Here is the article:
I consider Barry the best writer on the
entire Seeking Alpha dot com, but being the best writer on that
website is not a very great achievement since most writers over
there are rather amateurish. So not Barry. And, just like me, he
loves math. His graphics are always a jewel for the eye and he is
a good writer too.
In short: For me Barry as an individual has more credit than the
whole Federal Reserve & he also has more brains than the
combined US Central Bankers...
When Barry gets interviewed by stupid media
folks he is Mr. Polite himself and when you read what he writes
you hear the lion roar.
Where I as a dumb person thought that the FED
had only pumped about 150 billion US$ via three programs that I
follow, Barry placed the next link to the New York FED:
And thus there are not three but five
new programs of taking in thrash from banks (AAA grade investment
stuff, often mortgage backed stuff but also car loan and student
loan related stuff). But most of all, quote:
Further, the OpEd notes that the Fed has -- at least so far -- staved off a total financial meltdown through their alphabet soup of credit facilities, lending nearly a trillion dollars to banks and brokers against all sorts of sketchy collateral.
Comment: So why is this trillion not reported
in the FED H3 file that is supposed to track those 'providing
liquidity' programs? (See http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/)
There are two possible explanations:
--ONE) That is because in H3 only the Basel one rules are tracked and
hence the missing 850 billion US$ have to go to the so called 'off
balance' items from the commercial and investment banks.
Only somewhere next year Basel two will set in and off balance
items need to count for the reserves of banks too, rather likely
we will hear from 'technical difficulties' in 2009 when it comes
to implementing Basel two...
--TWO) The mentioned one trillion could be a cumulative number
over all five programs over the entire lifespan. This could be
because the money auctions (the TAF program) is about 600 billion
So in fact, this already could have
At last I want to make an easy to understand
calculation as why it is so stupid to leverage up all that stuff.
It is about investment bank Lehman Brothers, right now they are
leveraged up something like 27.1 and in some time it is 25.
How does it work?
Lehman Brothers takes 10 US$ million from
it's on balance books and places it in the off balance files. With
a leverage of 25 they borrow 240 million US$, this gives a war
chest of 250 million US$ to hang out the 'investor'.
When those investments decline only 4% they have lost 10 million
from the war chest so they are left with 240 million US$.
You understand: All of the original on balance money has been
But there is no problem: After all we have left 240 million, why
not take out 5 million and with a leverage of 50 we borrow another
245 million US$ from the same pool of sucker investors?
And so on and so on, this explains why the
leverages only climbed all those years until the credit crisis
broke out. And if Barry is right with the detail that the US FED
has taken one trillion of that shit on her balances; why invest in
Till updates, have a nice life or try
to get one!
(02 June 2008) Man oh man, today I found a
wonderful graphic that paints some giant damage for the Americans
in general and future budgets for the US military in particular.
The graphic was found in an article on the economist dot com:
The article is relatively low class because
it does not say that US family housing value leaks away at a 10 to
12 billion US$ a day. Ok ok, the article says that the present
decline is bigger compared to all what happened during the great
depression. But for me that was old news.
Lets enjoy the graphic, it is from Robert
Shiller so it is one 100% reliable:
After waiting for over four years:
Here I come you fucking US military!
I don't recall how long ago I wrote that the
US military might will be destroyed more or less the same way as
they won the cold war with Russia, it could be 2004 or even 2003.
But I have been right all the time while the Americans only added
weight and more and more one yard wide ugly wives popped up on
Do you know why Americans love one yard wide females? I don't know
why they love those one yard wide females but they have plenty of
Brrr & bah! Disgusting are those one yard
wide wives. Till updates...;)
(30 May 2008) Today two things: One of the most
strange phone calls from my entire life and in the second part I
will try to explain that indeed total reserves of the US
commercial banks very well could be far below the official H3
report on this.
|But first, in case you
missed it: There is a new full blown
Military Bloody Day declared for the 26th of July, this
time mostly in Afghanistan and in case the security
situation has improved enough in Iraq, I hope on some good
US military coffin filling in Iraq also! Good luck to
those who will stage the attacks!
Part 1) Over two months ago I went to a new
energy provider named Eneco, but the contract still isn't
validated so I phoned 0900 - 0201 to get to the consumer help.
At first you get one of those menu's with stuff like 'If you have
a question about your bill dial 2'. And lucky me: They female menu
voice also said that this conversation was recorded for training
purposes. So it's recorded...
After dialing through the menu the phone was
answered. (Phone call was done around 16.30 local time) The guy
'Goedenmiddag Reinko, ik ben Censura on
Dominicus en waarmee kan ik u helpen?'
Translated this is:
'Good afternoon Reinko, I am Censura on
Dominicus and what can I do for you?'
My dear reader, don't you think it is a bit
weird that when you make your first phone call to your new energy
provider they already know your name? Lets leave it with that and
turn in the next part to the serious stuff (the destruction of the
Part 2) Lately the US Federal Reserve is
constantly 'providing liquidity' to the US financial system. Why
they do this I do not understand completely since the US investors
have plenty of money to pump up oil, food and commodity prices on
a global scale. (Look at the pdf file from 26 May; if you use the
reported oil data in there US index investors are driving up oil
prices 37.2% as a point estimate.)
The three 'providing liquidity' programs are:
1) TAF (Term Auction Facility),
2) PDCF (Primary Dealer Credit Facility) and
3) TCLF (Term Securities Lending Facility).
On 23 May I already argued that if the
garbage as collateral accepted by the FED is only worth 90
cents on the dollar, we already have one third of total US
banking reserves wiped away. To make my case that indeed the total
US financial system is under water we only look at the 'terms and
conditions' of these three programs.
Here we go, we look at details of the
accepted collateral of course:
1) TAF (source),
the detail that counts says that the local US Central Bank tells
what it's worth. Quote:
means, with respect to the assets pledged by a Participant to its
Local Reserve Bank, the value, as of the Bid Submission Date,
assigned by the Local Reserve Bank to such assets.
Comment: The local reserve bank estimates the
2) PDCF (source),
the detail says it are the primary dealers like former Bear Stearn
Cos that define the value of the pledged collateral. Quote:
Collateral eligible for pledge under the PDCF includes all collateral eligible for pledge in open market operations, plus investment grade corporate securities, municipal securities, mortgage-backed securities, and asset-backed securities. Collateral that is not priced by the clearing banks will not be eligible for pledge under the
Comment: Collateral that is not priced by the
clearing banks (the clearing banks support the primary dealers)
says it all.
3) TCLF (source).
The detail says that the New York bank tells what it is worth, but
the FRBNY uses two schedules and schedule 2 has 5 sub schedules.
In order to prevent securities lending from affecting overnight bank reserves, loans will be collateralized with eligible collateral rather than cash. Eligible collateral will be determined by the FRBNY and
includes (see the source).
Comment: I do not have a clue as what is
happening over there. It also raises questions about the
definition of 'cash' at the New York FRB...
Weighing all in all it still is a bit strange
that the Americans have plenty of money to disrupt food and
commodity markets on a global scale while at the same time do
weird stuff like asking the primary dealers what the pledged stuff
is worth actually on 'the day it is pledged'. The PDCF is
definitely the most weird one but I completely do not understand
what TCLF is.
All we know 100% sure is not to invest in the
Till updates, have a nice life or try to get
(28 May 2008) Two things today: The weird behavior of the DOW Jones and a
detail from Afghanistan.
--DOW Jones: Today it was reported that year
on year US family housing lost about 3000 billion US$ in equity (source)
and so US commercial real estate must also have had a solid hit in
the last 12 months. It was 14.4% down year on year while the US
government lately reported a 3.1% decline (source).
By the way, the US government uses data from Freddie Mac (that is
a bastion of solid accountancy reporting...)
US consumer confidence was at a 15 year low.
More and more car loans are under water and the stuff is even
spreading to second hand cars.
Yet the DOW climbed on the 'news' that new
home sales were up 3.3% but it was 'seasonally adjusted'. The US
commercial department did not say what the real figure was and
zero so called 'financial journalists' asked for the real figure.
In short: Given the news this was a day of
computer trading programs that only work with so called technical
analysis so all that negative news is simply neglected...
And thus the Wall Street traders could sit back all day long and
eat bread and meat.
--Afghanistan: After the lawful killing of
Dennis van Uhm, the son of the Dutch military leader general Peter
van Uhm, suddenly all reports of the Mujahedin being cowards have
And although there are no Media reports on
this; suddenly it is in the mind of the local 'military experts'
that confronted with all this Dutch artillery and air power, the
Afghani fighters simply are far more brave compared to those Dutch
Again I would like to congratulate the
Afghanis with this perfect and lawful killing of Dennis van Uhm.
Like stated so many years ago: If you help me I will help you...;)
For this year 2008 it was advised to the
Afghanis in the last year 2007 to try and kill about 10 to 20
Dutch military folks, this policy is still valid. Otherwise the
other NATO countries will not get the message that flows from the
lawful killing of Dennis van Uhm.
Weighing all in all: This year there will be
only one so called Military Bloody Day and it is located in the
heat of Summer: 26 July 2008.
It is mostly for the Afghanis but if the
Iraqis want to help also you won't hear complaints from me. After
all now the credit crisis has turned into a food crisis we have to
kill more Americans.
So let it be official:
Next MBD and
the proceeding 15 days too of course is located in time at
26 July 2008.
As far as I see reality, it will be the only
MBD of this year.
Till updates, think well and fight well.
(26 May 2008) Man oh man, I already suspected
pension funds for a long time of pushing up food and commodity
prices. Via the blog from Russ Winter I found some good
information that indeed validates my insights or my suspicions.
But it is all true: the policies of the weird
fool Alan Greenspan will kill countless millions in the future.
And I am sad, there are almost no Americans
killed while this is so important right now. Waiting for the US
Senate pushing for some legislation is like waiting for the US
highways to get repaired...
The light version of the info found is the
And on the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs
website you can find a 19 page pdf file that is definitely worth
saving to your hard disk. Try to grasp it's future consequences,
they make me sad. Here it is:
I am sad that nobody kills Americans for
this, why let the American pension funds kill countless millions
and there is no retaliation???
Lots of people still don't get it: Making dialogue with the
Americans is utterly dumb, killing is the answer. Please remark
that I am not responsible for the way the Americans behave, I have
no influence on US politics whatsoever, not in the past and not in
It is sad but killing that slime is the only
Just a quote from page 8 of that file:
There are hundreds of
billions of investment dollars poised to enter the commodities
futures markets at this very moment.26
If immediate action is not taken, food
and energy prices will rise higher
still. This could have catastrophic economic effects on millions
of already stressed U.S. consumers. It literally could mean
starvation for millions of the world’s
Remark: The US military needs a very skewed
populace with many poor (the trailer trash people) in order to
fill her ranks. But right now the military desire gives rise to
millions of distressed US folks and countless deaths on a world
Therefore once more:
Kill more Americans!
It is logical, it is morally ok. Why not kill
a few more of this slime?
(23 May 2008, corrected 25 May) According to the US Federal
Reserve it is only arithmetic that the non borrowed reserves
are negative, quote (source):
The negative level of nonborrowed reserves is an arithmetic result of the fact that TAF borrowings are larger than total reserves.
Therefore lets do some simple arithmetic
ourselves, remark that for long periods of time the total reserves
of the US commercial banks were 40 to 42 billion US$.
(millions of US$)
||Non borrowed reserves
||TAF money auctions
||Bond auction program
|22 May 2008
Lets look at the 'arithmetic result' on 22
125000 + 15401 - 111855 = 28546 million US$.
Thus life is easy to understand: Since Nov
last year about one third of the real reserves of the US
commercial banks have gone...
Of course it is not in the main stream news
since this news is bad for advertising income, let that be the
problem for the main stream journalists and not my
was forgotten that the FED had three programs to 'provide
liquidity' to the commercial banks and the primary dealers, look
in the source
file at the 'Primary' column under 'Other borrowings from the Federal Reserve, NSA'
where another 13+ billion is parked.
It's no problem; we only have to wait a few
months longer. Stuff like this simply has to run it's course.
Likely family housing value will decline another trillion this Q2,
lots of car loans are already under water because of rising fuel
prices, commercial real estate is declining faster and faster, the
option mortgages will reset two times this year, foreclosures are
still on the rise, housing inventory is still on decade long highs
and that guarantees further price declines. Level 3 assets are
still rising and so on and so on. It looks that the financial mess
in the USA is from the same level as the mess in Iraq, a great
achievement done by team Dubya! Ha, in these months you only have
to wait for what new 'AAA investment grade' collateral is accepted
by the FED and you know what next part is under water in this
lovely credit crunch...;)
So I am sorry I made a
mistake, but although the H3 report from the US Federal
Reserve does not reflect it; my guess is that total reserves of
the US commercial banks are indeed declining rapidly. And if the
accepted collateral by the FED is worth 90
cents on the dollar, we already have lost one third of
total reserves of the US commercial banks...
At last: The concept of 'borrowed reserves'
comes from the other side of the milky way from some weird
financial universe. If you would have won one million in a
lottery, would you bring that to a bank that lived on borrowed
(19 May 2008, this is a more or less scientific
update so I dunno if it's temporary or not) From the high
mountains of advanced math I come thundering down to the green
valleys where the math dwarfs live.
This update is for the Wall Street traders
who all are math dwarfs by definition. I have found a YouTube vid
that even you can understand. It is about exponential growth and I
know you all get a severe headache only when you hear that word so
take some pain killers if you need them.
Here is the vid, please look at that elderly
American academic that explains exponential growth in a way that
even you folks can understand:
After you have seen the video you understand
that the American academic is only trying to explain how
exponential functions like f(t) = 1.07t behave.
In my world I would formulate it as this: Wow
wow wow, this American academic is capable of taking a product
integral from the constant 1.07! For an American this is just unbelievable
& also did you notice there were zero obese people in the
YouTube vid??? (Where did they hide them?)
Lets get serious: I want to destroy the US
military might and the most efficient way right now is doing that
via destruction of the US financial system. You Wall Street folks
rather likely think this is not a good idea.
So let me give you a few shots:
Shot 1) In the last seven years total debt of
the US economy upon herself grew about 8% a year, the FED never
had a problem with that because beside debt growth they also have
to 'finance' inflation and GDP growth.
Give it a bit of time my dear Wall Street
traders; 8% debt growth year in year out.
Shot 2) It is not in the main stream news
because most financial journalists are math dwarfs themselves, but
right now the total of debt that the US economy has upon herself
is over 50 trillion. Since 8% of 50 trillion is just 4 trillion
you folks need 4000 billion more debt this year, there is only one
There is a so called 'credit crisis' going on.
Shot 3) This one I leave to the imagination
of the Wall Street traders; what would you publish as shot number
3 if you were in my shoes?
That's the end of this update, I am smiling
ear to ear because I cannot find any reason or any kind of data
set that will protect the US military from future finance withdrawal.
Till updates my dear math dwarfs, till updates.
(15 May 2008) Today the US President Dubya gave
a 'speech' in the Israeli Knesset (that's the Israeli parliament).
His speech writers (Dubya cannot write his own speeches) had done
God had given some promise to Moses, king
David and some more folks and the new created state of Israel was
the fulfillment of that promise. And the Israelis were 'God's
After my humble opinion, when you have six
decades of war this rather likely is not a fulfillment of Gods
And Dubya praised the Israelis and held them
high as an example for the other 'terrorist supporting' nations in
the region. Yeah yeah Dubya, Israel is indeed a beacon for
freedom; over there Palestine females give birth at children at
military checkpoints because the fucking IDF won't let them go to
the hospital. Welcome in the land of the free Israelis... (Lets
hope the OPEC starts withdrawing a bit of oil from the two main
oil markets because I like oil a bit more higher please.)
Lets zoom in on the main contradiction in the
Dubya said that is was wrong that innocents
got killed while trying to achieve 'political objectives'.
Please my dear reader, let that one sink in;
when innocents get killed while trying to achieve political
objectives, Dubya considers that terrorism.
My dear reader, what is the highest
'political objective' in these centuries and decades? Isn't that
the creation of a state?
But then, what about all those Palestine villages that were wiped
off the map?
The Palestines were innocents in those days.
Elementary logic, with Dubya's own definition
of terror in my hands, says that Israel is founded with a massive
use of terror. And this explains why we still have so much terror
at the scene in the present days. But very likely Dubya will never
grasp that one; that's a pity for a lot of people.
(13 May 2008) In this world there are a lot of
holes where all long term stupidity has flown too. For example the
military regime of Myanmar is one of those holes with a lot of
stupidity: Because they refuse to accept foreign help they will
kill countless thousands.
Yet compared to the military regime of the
former Birma, I think the US Senate is capable of killing
countless millions. If the next quote is true than I have never
ever observed a part of government holding so much power and at
the same time is so utterly stupid. So utterly stupid and so much
lack of just the most elementary economical insights, compared to
the US Senate the Wall Street traders are true Albert Einsteins.
Don't believe me? Here is the quote (source):
Also Tuesday, the Senate voted 97-1 to direct President Bush to stop adding to the nation's strategic petroleum reserve. Some lawmakers feel that these shipments, which average 70,000 barrels a day, are pushing oil prices higher. The administration argues that that amount is a pittance compared to the 21 million barrels of oil the U.S. consumes each day.
Comment: In the first place it is global
demand that drives oil prices and in the second place it are the
actions of so called 'investors' that drive commodities up so
much. The implications are stunning: The US Senate does not
understand the damage Alan Greenspan did with his policies...
Wow, 97 to 1. They think that 70 thousand barrels a day is pumping
up the prices...
The Myanmar regime easily fits one thousand times in this hole of
The advice given: Kill
more Americans, the richer they are the better.
(11 May 2008) Via some relatively simple media
files I would like to guard you to 'where we are' in terms of the
credit crisis. The only thing left out is the 'leverage problem'
because no reliable media files or whatever info was observed.
We start with Russ Winter, Russ knows a lot
of stuff but his writings are always difficult to follow. Lately
US credit card consumer debt was about 2 to 3 times as high as so
called 'economists' expected.
Russ explains why it is so easy to understand
why credit card debt is climbing so fast, it is known as a Ponzi
scheme (inside a Ponzi financial unit, debt is so high that for
only paying the interest the unit needs to borrow more). Both USA
citizen Russ as Dutch citizen Reinko agree that the whole US
economy is a Ponzi scheme.
Here is the link:
Some of the machinations of the US Federal
Reserve are discussed by Gary North on goldseek dot com. Gary is
very pessimistic about all that swapping of US government bonds by
the FED to the primary dealers.
Ok, I can understand his fear because it took
the FED from 1914 to 2008 to build up something like 800 billion
in government bonds. And ok ok, in just a few weeks one third of
that reservoir is pumped into the primary dealers stuff.
But Gary forgets that the Federal Reserve has unlimited access to
more government bonds, they simply buy it from the US treasury...
I mean the reserves of the Social Security funds are also 'bought'
treasuries, there is no reason the Federal Reserve could do the
The article from Gary contains important information about how the
US banks avoid down writings and that is the reason I place it
Here is the link:
From a website named the dailyreconing dot
com I place a few more articles from different writers. They are
very far in their thinking but do not connect the dots on very
For example: They report about the height of
the derivatives (only $164.2 trillion in Q4 2007) and at the same
time report stuff like the P/E ratio on the DOW industrials is
climbing fast but they do not connect the dots...
If you connect the dots you understand there is a 'killer
threshold' on the DOW and if the killer threshold is taken, the
whole 164 trillion derivate positions come thundering down.
Lets go from writer to writer:
1) Dan Denning reports that now the Federal
Reserve accepts credit card debt as collateral for both the money
auctions as the government bond swaps.
Here is the link:
2) Dan Denning reports that so called 'Level
3' assets are growing in all five US investment banks. Dan thinks
it is 'bad news' while I know this is good news. In these days
Level 3 is the thrash bin of the banks. It goes more or less like
Many years to late regulators forced banks into Level 1, 2 and 3.
Level 1 is the most easy to understand and sell while Level 3 is
the most complicated and therefore in these days most difficult to
sell financial 'products' (for example second order call options
on a collection of 15 baskets of securities who are backed by
derivatives on credit swap positions and some down to earth sub
prime mortgages in the UK and California).
Very likely you do not want to buy such
stuff...;) Yet similar kind of stuff is in the Level 3 of the
banks. Here is the link:
3) Richard Daughty wrote some good stuff on
the total of derivative positions as hold by the US banks. For
myself speaking; Take a visit at the Basel based Bank for
International Settlements, it is a combined website for over 50
central banks. Go through the derivatives sections on that website
and you see: This is beyond belief.
Without any insult to the above mentioned
writers who do not have the fruits of their labors quoted but only
linked, here is a funny quote from Richard:
The report shows that the notional value of derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks has suddenly plunged by a whopping $8 trillion, which is (unbelievably) still only 5% of the total, and which merely takes the total down to the aforementioned-yet-still-staggering $164.2 trillion.
When I realized that $8 trillion is more than half of America's GDP, that is when I realized that "Houston, we seem to have a problem, as we are on fire, and we are tumbling out of control into the sun where we will soon be fried to a cinder."
Comment: Richard is a bit non scientific with
this, he should have stated that absurd large derivative positions
on relatively small assets are outside reality.
My dear reader, what do you think? When the USA has a Gross
Domestic Product like only 13 to 14 trillion and has derivative
positions like this, would you invest or would you withdraw
investments from the USA?
Here is the article from Richard:
Lets leave it with these five financial
articles, they are not from the Main Stream Media because it is
impossible to draw any insight from the Main Stream whatsoever.
CNBC, CNN and the Dutch based RTL7 all under perform in painting a
That's it, have a nice life or try to get
one. Till updates.
(09 May 2008) Today I placed a new update
in the NightmareOnWallStreet files, here
For the rest we only look at the Lebanese
The Hezbollah has to understand they have my
full support, I too do not understand why this government tries to
crack so hard on you. Does this Lebanese government not understand
that the Hezbollah is on the US list of so called terror
And once you are on that stupid 'anti
America' list you can never leave it, just look at Nelson Mandela.
Nelson is still on that list...
And at the moment Hezbollah looses her
military might, the fucking Israelis will come in for the kill.
That is relatively easy to understand. What shit is in the minds
of the 'Western supported' Lebanese government?
Therefore the advice is as follows: Avoid a
political coup by all means but bring some real bad days or weeks
to the official Lebanese army.
Holy Moses, why is the political insight of
the Lebanese government running at the IQ 43 level? They have that
Israeli slime next to them and they try to wipe out the military
power of Hezbollah???
I do not understand why they try to rule via
stupidity, it is from the same stupid level as we have in the
former republic of Birma.
(05 May 2008, this may be a temporary update or
not). Is the Federal Reserve picking up more garbage while
providing 'liquidity to the markets'? I have argued on many
occasions that they do and if indeed this Yahoo file is correct we
have the next, (source)
The central bank last week announced new steps to aid with tight credit conditions by increasing the size of cash auctions to banks and allowing financial institutions to put up credit card debt, student loans and car loans as collateral for Fed loans.
Comment: Car loans a collateral for US bucks
(also loans...)? Very interesting, the world reserve currency
needs to absorb car loans on her balance sheets in order to
'provide liquidity'? The car loans stuff has of course a bit to do
with General Motors (see the previous update below).
Car loans on the balances of the Federal
Reserve??? Please my foreign investors who like to invest in the
USA: Is it wise to invest or is it better to withdraw?
Car loans on the balances of the Federal
Any idiot still investing in that country is
only asking for the big haircut.
That's it, till updates.
(02 May 2008) It was a lovely week on the
financial markets; when Central banks start contradicting
themselves we only have more and more smell of what I call 'the
Let me give you two examples of
1) The Bank of England promises to the UK
banks they will have full support, the support will be secretive
and only after 30 years the amount of support will be unveiled.
Contradiction: A few days later the BoE tells
the public that this whole credit crisis is a bit overblown and
that sub prime mortgage related losses might well be only 50% of
what the banks think themselves.
2) The US Federal Reserve told the public
that there is no recession at all because there was still 0.6%
growth of the US gross domestic product.
Contradiction: Only one or two days later
they told they will take in 50 billion more of 'investment grade collateral'
(read garbage) in exchange for US dollars. So in the next week the
combined real reserves of the US commercial banks is about minus
150 billion. (The FED says that is only arithmetic...)
It is all so funny because finally the
journalists start complaining that you just cannot explain the way
the DOW Jones and similar stuff moves...
And that is true my dear RTL7 and CNBC
journalists; it is a long way to the Piccadilly circus I can tell
Since the financial journalists have proofed
this week they are not worth their salary, lets zoom in on one
detail that speaks for the broad market:
This week it was reported that General Motors
had a loss of something like 3.3 billion. (Of course this loss was
related to their financial services arm.) And so the GM stocks
shot very high and so called financial journalists explained 'the
loss was likely not as big as expected'.
Of course the financial journalists forget
that there is over one trillion in derivates outstanding on GM.
(Only the credit default swaps are something like one trillion,
lets not forget the ordinary put and call options on GM.)
It is well known and well documented that JP
Stanley Bear Morgan sold this stuff without administering if it
was 'call' or if it was 'put'. (As long as we sell more 'puts' we
are ok because we are America...)
Of course 'put' is the danger of a collapse
of this one trillion joke on GM and therefore it is rather logical
that GM posts a large increase in their DOW value (meaning the
stock price climbs fast) when they report a loss.
Why is the GM example a detail to the
behavior of the entire market?
Just look what the DOW Jones did; it ended
above 13 thousand so this year there is only about 2 or 3 percent
loss on that index for this year.
I guess the DOW Jones is the safest place to
be if only a GM component has over one trillion in derivates
hanging over it...
That's it, have a nice life or try to get
(30 April 2008) Today I feel the need to go for
a little ego trip, not for very long but I rejoice in the news as
it was found today.
What is the case?
Well I am very dissatisfied with the weird
behavior of the US stock markets and the DOW Jones in particular
lately. Therefore I quote from my own writings from 13 Nov 2007,
it was an estimate of how much equity in home value would be
amounts to something like 7 to 7.5 trillion US$ / year or over 20 billion
US$ a day.
Comment: Since the 13 Nov publication was the
opening salvo for the NightmareOnWallStreet I did add some pure
propaganda in it. I am so sorry for mixing truth and lies, I
really am ...;)
What about the ego trip?
Ha, when you look at the Case Shiller housing
index for the first quarter, something like 6 trillion in US home
value will be lost this year. Some Washington think tank comes up
with the next (source),
The Case-Shiller data released yesterday indicate the rate of house price decline is accelerating. The 20-city index declined 12.7 percent over the last year, while the 10-city index fell 13.6 percent. However, the annual rate of price decline over the last quarter was 24.9 percent in the 20-city index and 25.8 percent in the 10-city index. At this rate of price decline, the excesses of the housing bubble will have largely disappeared by the end of the year. At the same time, the price decline implies an incredibly rapid loss of wealth. In real terms, the rate of price decline in the 20-city index would imply a loss of almost $6 trillion in real housing wealth over the course of the year, an average of $85,000 per homeowner.
Comment: The think tank is relatively good
because if the reported 24.9% 20 city index is correct it is
indeed something like 5.8 to 5.9 trillion. Yet they have a major
fault in their thinking: at this speed it will take more or less
one year longer for the US housing bubble to have disappeared. And
that is another 6 trillion in lost private home equity my dear but
stupid Wall Street traders!
This year the so called 'option mortgages'
will jump to their real interest level, I have never studied the
size of that fun but it is definitely comparable to the problem
generated by the sub prime mortgages.
In the UK it was reported for the first time
in many years that house prices are declining too and although I
never wrote one word on it, This is important news too since the
UK is also a bit bubbled up.
And so on, and so on; let me say it one more
The DOW will
If you have any information contradicting
this, please give it to me.
So far for my ego trip, have a nice life or
try to get one!
(29 April 2008) Today the US Federal Reserve
will have a so called 'policy meeting' and it could be they lower
rates again... And by doing so force the pension funds to swap
many billions in government bonds to weird investments in food
stuff and so.
So long term investors like pension funds are
turned into day traders on food markets, welcome to the strange
world from Alan Greenspan & co. Some Swiss banks are even
advertising with this; they advertise with 'portfolio managers'
that manage 'pension money' and the advertising slogan is
'Thinking new perspectives'.
But 'Thinking new perspectives' leads to
countless millions who go down from two meals a day to only one.
Crafting more financial products will not help while there is
still far too much money in the system.
And who pumped all this destructive money
into the system? Yes yes yes, it is Alan Greenspan. The second
culprit is the ECB Jean Trichet who still has his M3 money growth
year on year growing above 10% while at the same time insulting
workers that they should keep their 'wage demands' low. In this it
has to be remarked that the US Federal Reserve stopped publishing
their M3 money growth in 2005 because 'No additional economical
insights are gained from this'.
It just keeps me wondering: Why do only so
little people see the dangers of pumping up so much money into the
real economy? And after that throw some cookies at some monkeys
(with this I mean the Dubya tax package relief of 600 US$ for
every US taxpayer, also known as the 'stimulus plan').
And about thinking new perspectives; suppose
every US taxpayer would not get a lousy 600 US bucks but 60
thousand or even 60 million...
Would it change the US economical situation just one quantum?
(24 April 2008) Today I would like to look at
two points; looking as why the US stock markets act so counter intuitive
and may be a new recipe for the future feast meal (here
is the index for the future feast meal). Here we go:
-- I do not post any longer updates on the US
stock markets because they behave that weird. And when you cannot
make logic of it you must stop commenting on it. Of course I
perfectly know why the US stock markets behave so weird: they are
slaves of the outstanding derivatives positions and if the US
stock markets at some point turn 'too low' the whole financial
structure will collapse while on other stock markets you only have
to wait for a so called 'rebound'.
I can try to explain this once more but I
found a superb article that explains a relatively large chunk of
the stuff involved. If you do not understand it, it is recommended
to save it to your hard disk and at a later point study it
Please do not back down because of CDS stuff (CDS = credit default
swap, it is just another financial derivate but it is nice to know
that inside the USA there is 50% of world gross domestic product
outstanding of this stuff). Here is a quote from that file (GM is
Another example. The market cap of GM is only about $11B. However, based on estimates in the CDS market, there are about $1 trillion in CDSs betting on GM and their bonds. Any change in GM's situation, will create a rippling effect in this $1T CDS community of GM.
And here is the link:
Again: save it to your hard disk and study it
so you understand the erratic behavior of the US stock markets.
For other nations it is also of relevance to understand this
article because when you have to disinvest large chunks of money
you must have a solid story... Until the present day there are
still lots of central banks who do not understand the significance
of these insights.
--The second item: A new recipe? Yes I am
thinking about a rather simple fishsoup that can even be cooked in
the heat of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan. If I write it,
it will have the next title: Dennis 'Can I have some air support'
van Uhm fish soup. Problem is: I do not have a clue at to what
herbs and vegetables the Iraqis and Afghanis can use both. So the
local cooks have to deal with that problem and of course use their
That's it but because Dennis is cremated
tomorrow in Beuningen we just have to post some (propaganda) fun
Do not worry my dear Dutch, below you
see only black and white trailer thrash that could not find a
Till updates, have a nice life!
(22 April 2008, temporary update) Today the new
Dutch leader of the Dutch military forces was giving an interview
to the 'Media'. And ok ok, he took it like a man...
He took it like a man: The first morning in office it was reported
that his son was killed...
And we cannot deny this: Giving an interview like this proves that
general van Uhm is not a coward; That's a fact. But I cannot give
him my condolences, sorry man but with a police force like this in
Groningen I just cannot do this.
Yet, since Uhm is Dutch why not proceed in
the Dutch language? Here we go:
Volgens mijn inschatting is het maximaal 48
uur nadat het grafkistje van Dennis de grond is ingezakt (misschien
doen ze een crematie, dat weet ik niet) is het vet janken voor
onze dappere generaal. Ik denk: zaterdag ochtend. Ja, de zaterdag
ochtend is een goed beginpunt om te beginnen met janken...
Voor de rest heb ik slechts twee punten:
Punt één: De generaal van Uhm heeft zo zijn
gedachten omtrent het al dan niet toevallig zijn van de dood van
zijn zoon. De generaal beschouwt dit als puur toevallig en de
defensie top en de politieke mannetjes hebben ook deze mening.
Ok, die hebben we dan weer in de spreekwoordelijke broekzak...
Punt twee: In een nogal lang verleden heb ik
vrij uitvoerig geschreven omtrent het statistische detail dat in
Irak het zeer wel moeglijk is we inderdaad tegen meer dan tegen
één miljoen doden staan te kijken. Beide studies, hoewel heel
verschillend, waren toch vrij rigoreus: Hoeveel doden zijn er in
dit huishouden en is er wat bewijs daarvoor.
De allerduurste studie was iets als 50
Echter ons klotenleger doet allemaal rare
dingen en zegt niet heel eenvoudig dat je toch makkelijk op de
begraafplaatsen van Irak de echte getallen kunt vinden?
Waarom zeggen jullie dat niet? Het is
namelijk zeer waarschijnlijk dat 'het' meer dan één miljoen
En omdat jullie dat niet doen dwingen jullie
mij om de overlijdens advertenties omtrent de dappere Dennis als
toilet papier te gebruiken.
Het spijt mij dat dit moet maar natuurlijk
heb ik nagedacht omtrent de legale consequencies van dit gedrag:
de Nederlandse wet zegt dat het niet verboden is om krantenpapier
te gebruiken op het toilet...
Daar kan je het voorlopig mee doen mijn
geliefde Nederlandsch leger,
(18 April 2008, third and temporary update)
We rejoice in the lawfull killing of Dennis van Uhm, the son of
the highest ranking Dutch general. We do this in the Dutch
language, here we go:
Gaaf hè? Hadden we eerst deze week het
bericht dat het Nederlandse leger ongeveer een 25% te lage
instroom heeft dus kon ik mijn advies aan de weledele Afghanen
bijstellen en BAM twee dagen later die lieve Dennis tussen zes
Wat is de reden van deze opdatum?
Nou voor de kijkbuis paradeerden wat politici,
militaire 'analisten' en generaaltjes buiten dienst en hun
opvattingen zijn een compleet vat vol tegenstrijdigheden.
Zo maakt de vijand vanwege onze 'militaire
superioriteit' gebruik van laffe middelen als op afstand bediende
bermbommen en sluipschutters. Oh?
Dus ons leger heeft geen scherpschutters want dat is 'laf'?
En wat op afstand bediende bommen betreft; hebben wij niet nogal
veel artillerie? Dat is pas dapper: Vanaf meer dan 10 kilometer op
een dorp gaan schieten... Om van de helden van de luchtmacht nog
maar te zwijgen.
De conclusie omtrent 'lafheid' is duidelijk:
Als wij na 14 doden al 25% minder instroom hebben in ons leger dan
is dit land bevolkt met laffe mensen... Dit is een land van
lafbekken, dat is evident!
Dan hadden we ook nog die mafketel van een
Balkenende, meestal heeft hij ze wel op een rijtje maar volgens
hem was het de bedoeling van de vijand om de politieke wil van de
missie te ondermijnen. Nou dat was nogal kort door de bocht,
natuurlijk hoop ik daar wel op maar pas als we die in de broekzak
hebben kunnen we verder.
Nee, voorlopig zijn we veel minder ambitieus:
Als slechts veertien Nederlandse afgevulde lijkkistjes aanleiding
geven tot 25% minder instroom dan is het handig om dit jaar eens
10 tot 20 kistjes meer af te vullen en te kijken hoe het dan staat
met de instroom. Wel met je poten op de grond blijven:
Realistische doelen in realistische tijdframes...
Het politieke doel is er heus wel: Jaap de Hoop Scheffer voor paal
zetten in de NAVO in Brussel. Die provincie hoofdstad Den Haag
acht ik niet erg opportuun; dat kan nooit een doel op zich zijn,
hooguit een bijkomend voordeeltje.
Jaap heeft straf nodig omdat de NAVO veel en veel te laat besloot
om lichtere bommen te gebruiken en hoewel ik al een poosje geen
'daily air summary' van het Pentagon heb gelezen is het zeer
waarschijnlijk dat er nog veel te veel air power wordt gebruikt (wat
dan om één of andere voor mij onbegrijpelijke reden niet 'laf'is).
Van Balkenende had ik beter verwacht, het
Geert Wilders probleem heeft hij in mijn visie goed aangepakt maar
hier laat hij de nodige steekjes vallen: Afghanistan is op dit
moment gewoon bezet door een groot aantal legers, opbouwwerk is
gewoon niet mogelijk onder deze omstandigheden. 1 + 1 = 2 Jan
En tja, by the way, als waarom de Afghanen en
Irakezen zich iets zouden aantrekken van mijn slagveld adviezen?
Tja, als je dat na zeven jaar nog niet snapt dan snap je het over
zeven jaar nog niet dus ga ik dat echt niet nog eens uitleggen. Er
zijn ook leerlingen die gewoon niet x kunnen oplossen in 2x = 10,
meestal is dat geen cognitief maar een emotioneel probleem. Nou
die militaire 'analiticy' die het hebben over 'laffe aanvallen'
zitten precies in die hoek: het is heel eenvoudig te begrijpen
waarom de Afghanen en de Irakezen mij serieus nemen, maar als je
het niet wilt begrijpen dan is dat jou probleem en niet de mijne.
En als middelen van de vijand 'laf' zijn terwijl je zelf op veel
grotere schaal soortgelijk spul gebruikt dan ben je toch echt een
Nou, ik kap met deze opdatum; het was een
prachtige dag nu deze Dennis dood is, het is net alsof Allah een
klein handje helpt. Ja het was een prachtige dag, ik dank de
Afghanen en natuurlijk dank ik de Almachtige.
(18 April 2008, second update) Sometimes good
or bad news comes in a lot of small packages, sometimes it comes
in the size of cubic lightyears. This was definitely the week of
the cubic lightyears! What is the case?
Well for the fourth day on a row I could go
into the city without all those annoying and irritating police
cars. After almost seven years of that shit it feels wonderful.
And only four days ago
I published a message to the Afghanis asking them to try and kill
10 to 20 Dutch military folks this year...
Yesterday the Dutch military forces got a new commander; general
van Uhm is taking it over from that Berlijn guy. Today, on his
first working day, there was this incredible news: Two Dutch
military folks dead and one of them is named Dennis van Uhm. Yes,
the son of general van Uhm is dead.
Oh oh Dennis 'can I have some air power' van
Uhm: your fate is a strange one!
Just unbelievable, this news is so beautiful: A big fist of
emotion strait into the heads of the Dutch military leadership.
Oh oh you bags of slime: Today you simply got
what you deserved for so long.
And to the Afghanis:
Till updates, have a nice life or try to get
(18 April 2008) A message to these stupid
RTL7 journalists who still have not figured out how simple it is
to find some of that hidden US government debt.
It is just a small chunk but in the next link
you can read it for yourself (I hope that stupid RTL7 journalists
can read English). Here is the link:
Read down until you see 'Assets at the end of 2007'
are 2,023.6 billion or just over two trillion. The whole problem
with this is that these are 2,024 billion in US government
bonds. The workers have paid their money and these supposed to be
savings are turned into US government bonds and their savings are
Furthermore you have to pay some kind of
interest on that kind of bonds, the interest is paid with more
bonds... The US government is paying herself with more bonds...
To understand how big emotion has set in have
this weirdo stuff told to the public we have no problem until 2041
alarm on Social Security...
Lets leave it with that. Till updates.
(16 April 2008) A message to OPEC:,
Like promised before crude oil broke the 100
US$ a barrel threshold, now with the 120 US$ threshold in sight I
have to update.
It looks like the OPEC has been right all
these years: Output is more or less at the right levels and all
those hysterical journalists that only point at some artificial
difference in daily output compared to demand are wrong.
It looks like all that 'investor' money that
pumps up commodities is the largest culprit. These so called
'investments' are viewed as a hedge against inflation, as far as I
know reality it happens on all levels of money: the M3, M2 and
even the pension fund M1 level. For example: The idiot monetary
policies from the US Federal Reserve forces pension funds for
years on a row to skip government bonds and go for the taking of
risk. In this we have to blame the obese fatbags from the USA
On the other hand, the world economy has
swallowed the rise in oil prices fairly good. It are the rises in
food prices (again a large chunk of US M3 and M2 money is to blame
for that) that cause real problems for real people. Therefore
there is no problem with oil in the range of 120 to 140 US$. So
the new threshold is 140 US$.
Now of course the OPEC is not the savior of
this present financial system, but development nations need
refined products at reasonable prices. For example: Wherever you
live on this world, it is reasonable that for one hour of
unskilled labor you always have the same kilo's of bread. This is
what I call the 'labor standard for elementary needs' every human
Furthermore, why should OPEC deliver to the
two main oil markets in the USA and Europe? Just craft some
advanced contracts that for example give developing nations a
crude price of at most 63 US$? But the developing nations do not
have refineries but need the refined products, so help them...
Of course there will be smuggling problems
and of course there will be thieves. Of course there will be
regimes that think supporting the USA is wise for their own
safety. This all does not take away it is wise to implement wise
policy and that is the labor standard & not the shit sold by
the US Federal Reserve.
In another development I have found freedom
for as long as it lasts: an unbelievable thing has happened! What
is so unbelievable?
Well, for two days on a row I could do my
stuff as an individual (stuff like going out for shopping) and for
two days on a row I did not see one police car!
In the last five to seven years I never had
such a freedom! It feels wonderful I can tell you that!
In the last seven years, only when I crossed
the border with Germany by bicycle I could enjoy living without
Lets hope the previous update from 14 April
will reach the Afghanis so I can live a few days longer without
that annoying police attention...:(
Till updates, have a nice life or try to get
(14 April 2008) A message to the Afghanis:
Some time ago I advised to try and kill
something like 28 Dutch soldiers. Yet, to my surprise, already the
Dutch army has a 25% lack of new soldiers and they even have a
name for this: it is the 'Uruzgan effect'.
This is amazingly good news: Now the advice
can be lowered to killing something like the 15 to 20 reach and if
the Afghanis can reach that level of killed Dutch soldiers they
can reap a few of the next benefits:
-- A 50% of lack in new Dutch soldiers could
-- This 50% lack would bring hefty pressures on the Dutch army in
order to get the Uruzgan running a few years longer.
-- That NATO creep named Jaap de Hoop Scheffer would loose
And so on and so on, here in Holland they
cannot pump up the army with giving big bags of money to new
soldiers like they do in the USA. In the USA all that black and
white trailer thrash people go to the US military because they
cannot find normal jobs for a normal salary. This whole US
military is mostly made up of trailer thrash people...
So my dear Afghanis: As far as I can see
reality, best is to go and kill Dutch soldiers at this moment. (Of
course other actions against other NATO members are also important
but as a strategy for this calendar year killing Dutch looks like
the most wise: Good Luck with it!)
Here you see Jaap with his friend
(11 April 2008) There are some food riots in
some countries and that is a good thing. Until now the food riots
only go against the local governments so the food rioters still do
not understand they have to kill Americans...
Time will bring wisdom.
By the way, just a few years back I proposed
a so called 'labor standard' for the valuation of currencies and
in case this kind of standard would have been implemented we would
not have such weird food prices and no riots.
But the fatbag obese Americans never listen to reasonable
proposals, they only understand the art of filling death coffins.
I am not going to place long lists of reasons
as to why there should a need to kill more Americans, I only
A lot of American investors think it is wise
to 'invest' in commodities so when that M3 money starts to ram
around you instantly know: This is a major million people killer.
Therefore my proposition is simple and
efficient: Kill more Americans...
In the past I always had a strong habit upon
selecting the hardest targets only yet given the present
conditions civilian dead US fatbags are very welcome:
Want to have some food in
your stomach? Just kill Americans in large enough numbers!
Till updates my beloved reader. Have a nice
life or try to get one via killing fatbags in large enough
(09 April 2008) Today the International
Monetary Fund made another blunder, it is not that they don't
answer my emails on the real reserves of the US commercial banks,
it is not that they think that total write downs in relation to
the fine works of Alan Greenspan will reach at most one trillion
US$ where any idiot can see it will be something in between 2 to 3
This time they are not wrong on the big
picture but tell crap on details.
What is the case? According to the IMF Dutch
housing prices are overvalued with 30%. (That would leave my own
country in a situation comparable to the slimy inhabitants of the
The IMF simply does not understand how taxes
are collected here in Holland: Here in Holland the taxes on income
are only taken after the interest you pay on your home mortgage is
withdrawn from your gross income. In the surrounding countries
home owners have to pay for the interest after they are taxed by
This gives Dutch folks the nice benefit: They
can buy foreign real estate with 'before government taxes income'
while the stupid foreigners can only fight back with 'after
government money left'.
Oh oh that stupid IMF: not only they do not
understand the big picture of international macro economics, they
also lack a microscope to zoom in on important details...
When you study the 'median income to median
house price', rather likely the UK will hit the wall. But the UK
is a staunch friend of the USA so the IMF has 'better things to
(06 April 2008) So it brings some relief to
my mind that I am on strike against delivering stupid market
updates; how can I comment on a weird DOW value of 12,608.77? I
refrain from that because I also don't comment on my toilet
Having said that we explain why in fact the
US economy looks a lot like the economy of a third world country.
Here we go:
On the television on the Discovery Channel
there is a program named 'Dirty Jobs'. When you, just like me,
have nothing better to do you start looking at it. Of course the
Dirty Job program is not a rigid scientific statistical approach
but it makes you wonder why there is constantly this lack of mechanization...
People are used as machines and labor conditions are rampant.
How come this?
It is very easy to explain: In the USA they
think it is wise to set the minimum wage at something like 6US$
per hour. That is below 4 € per hour and as a comparison we have
the next from my own country:
--In my country it are the 18 to 19 year olds
that have this minimal wage,
--In my country when you are 23 years or older you have at a
minimum 8 Euro or above 12 US$.
--In my country you also have 8% holiday gift upon your earned
money and healthcare is below one 100 € per month whatever
illness you have.
--In my country you have something like 3 to 4 weeks holiday in a
year and your working week is at most 40 hours.
--In my country you also have a lot of government beneficiaries
when you are on minimum wage; when the rent on your house is 400
€ you will have above 100 € support from the government.
On the individual level poverty is not a
choice but a lack of getting out of it, on the government level
poverty can be a choice: especially when you are the 'largest'
economy in the world it is a choice: Keeping minimum wages so
absurd low is the same as saying child labor is just
As a whole this present statistical pallet is
very easy to explain: Wealth and income are simply too skewed in
the USA, I do not know the details exactly so I do not know if 80%
of wealth is kept by 20% of Americans or that it is 90% of wealth
is kept by 10% of Americans. I do not know...
All I know that compared to my country I
would not invest in America until they have figured out their
problems. But they need a few nukes and not a few 9/11 repeatings
to figure out their problems; we only see idiots like McCain,
Hillary and Obama fighting for the seat of ruling 50% of the world
defense budget (mostly borrowed money by the way).
(05 April 2008) I have to do the more or less
obligatatory US market wrap update, so here it is:
Since the DOW closed this week at 12,608.77
any idiot can see it is at least 1500 too high. Therefore I go on
a strike: only after the DOW reaches reality I will make future
wrap ups. That's it.
(04 April 2008, temporary update) This
temporary update is for the European Central Bank or the ECB:
Before the last two meetings of your 'policy
stuff' I explained that you need to raise the rates. Two times on
a row you did not do that and now inflation is starting to get in
because some of you have shit in their brains.
Facts are that due to the high Euro value the
trade surplus has turned into a (small) trade deficit. Yet against
the USA we still have a solid surplus.
Why not reap the benefits of a strong currency?
A strong currency has lots of benefits: It
keeps producers lifting productivity so we could avoid the 20 to
30% of obesity in our working population. A strong currency gives
good buying opportunities of commodities. A strong currency has
benefits this and has benefits that.
But you slimy creatures at the ECB constantly
fail to raise the stuff you rule and it makes we wonder why. Are
you truly a hostage to the stuff the Federal Reserve is
Why not live in freedom my dear ECB and raise
by at least 25 basis points in your next so called 'meeting'? Live
in freedom while we know that the finest of European industrial
pearls have lived out Word War II...
Get your weird ass together and raise while
we can... (It is only pasta at my local Aldi layout, a few months
back it was 35 cents now it is 95 cents so I am on the edge of
something horrible like asking for the execution of the European
Central banker named Claude Trichet).
Lets leave this update with that (Oops, I
forgot: the Dutch military had their fourth roadside bomb against
them inside just seven days! Great work my dear Afghanis!!!!!)
Till updates my dear reader, have a nice
(03 April 2008) What is the classical
definition of a so called 'puppet regime'? That is rather simple:
a so called 'puppet regime' is a country that is hold up via
outside military powers. History tells us that puppet regimes do
not last, for example the former USSR had a puppet regime in
Afghanistan and when that puppet regime collapsed we in the West
just shrugged our shoulders saying "It was a USSR puppet
regime only". We accepted the demise of the Afghan
Najizbullah 'president' as just the way things go with puppet
In the present years we have puppet regimes
in Afghanistan and Iraq, both regimes only live by foreign
military rule. If the foreign military rule would not be there,
the regimes would collapse and so a normal evolution could be
In order to give sound proof to the fact that
Iraq is indeed nothing more but a puppet regime (remark that upon
the dependence of foreign military might these regimes cannot help
the populace they are supposed to rule), I only give some quotes
from a file of the ass press, here we go (source):
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Iraq is looking at a potential boon in oil revenue this year, as the U.S. spends some $153 million a month in the country on fuel alone. But U.S. officials say it will take some time before Baghdad builds the capacity to manage the revenue.
Comment: So in the sixths year of war it will
take 'some time' for Baghdad to manage the revenue? It looks like
a classical definition of a puppet regime...
But, as always with the Americans there is
more. Two relatively stupid US senators also have something to
say. Lets look at the products of their brains, quote:
"We believe that it has been overwhelmingly U.S. taxpayer money that has funded Iraq reconstruction over the last five years, despite Iraq earning billions of dollars in oil revenue over that time period that have ended up in non-Iraqi banks," Levin and Warner wrote in a letter to the head of the Government Accountability Office.
"At the same time, our conversations with both Iraqis and Americans during our frequent visits to Iraq, as well as official government and unofficial media reports, have convinced us that the Iraqi government is not doing nearly enough to provide essential services and improve the quality of life of its citizens," they said.
Comment: In the first place: free access to
Iraqi oil comes with a cost. In the second place the whole war is
funded via borrowed money just like the so called 'profits' of the
US financial institutions. In the third place the US vice
president has declared 'deficits do not matter'. In the fourth
place the US guy Warner has a whole of earmarks defense money
going to his home state via so called 'tax money' that is in fact
I do not understand why the Warner guy does not support the
sublime Cheney guy insights... Deficits don't matter.....
Lets leave it with that, till
(02 April 2008) Today it was in the local
news that the prophet Muhammed fucking a nine year old girl inside
a Mosque cartoons will not get published on the 20th of April this
That is good news because I would like to
keep on staging financial attacks while this international banking
system is as fragile as it is and there is no need whatsoever to
declare the 20th of April a so called Military Bloody Day...;)
Of course I could go into a rage about why it
is that stupid to buy banking stock from for example the Swiss UBS
or the USA Lehman Brothers, yet I refrain from rage because we
have a beautifully Year on Year statistic for the US military.
Here it is, just click on the pic to get to the source:
This is the kiss for US general
And to all those financial idiots that think
'now the bottom has been reached' I can only say: We have seen
about 10% of the write offs that are impending, me not worry: 140
billion of write downs until now is a joke and stays a joke.
Lets leave it with that; the DOW climbing 300
today just is not is what it looks like. And there is no
need to declare the 20th of April a so called Military Bloody
(01 April 2008) To the Afghanis: Two roadside
bombs against the Dutch forces within one day! Great job,
On the financial front we have the great
rescue operation of the entire US financial system under
leadership of the great Dubya! It seems to be the biggest overhaul
of US finances since the great depression from 1929 and it might
not be too little but it is definitely too late. Here
is the laughable stuff from these idiots.
Three idiots lined up... As you see
the middle guy has a high blood pressure.
Remember some old stuff from the former US
Secretary of Defense prior to the Iraqi invasion? It was like 'We
go in, we replace the government, we go out'.
In this there is a striking resemblance to
the US Federal Reserve money auctions: it only dives deeper and
At last: The possibility of writing down one
ore more trillions has reached the shores of the US populace via a
Media report as found on the Drudge report, it contains some good
observations but nowhere there is solid reasoning as why it would
be only one trillion US$ in write downs. Here is the Bloomberg
stuff (who, just by the way, never answer one of my emails):
Oh oh, the Bloomberg weasels; you could write
an entire 1600 page book on them but I will not do that. All I say
(31 March 2008) Correction upon the 21 March
I did not know it on 21 March but the
planning upon the 20th April promised cartoons are as next:
--The Prophet will walk to a mosque hand in
hand with a nine year old girl,
--On the mosque a swastika is depicted,
--The guy that publishes this kind of crap has bodyguards paid by
the Dutch government.
--Rumors say that the Prophet already has an erection while
walking to the mosque.
--Inside the mosque (with the swastika on it) the Prophet will
fuck the nine year old girl, how graphic this is going to be is
unknown to me.
Lets be real: The Danish cartoons are nothing
compared to this.
So how should al Qaida International react
upon this news?
They need to keep their calm and strike with
at least 50 and at most 100 dead Dutch civilians. Most perfect
date would be the 20th of April and if not; keep your cool...
Keep your cool but for me as the writer of
this website we could observe perfect stuff... To you as a reader
what exactly is 'perfect stuff'.
Well perfect stuff was observed just after
the Spanish elections from a few years back, I had all the perfect
statistics to bone upon while at the same time we had hysterical
terror experts explaining that influencing the Spanish was
'utterly hypothesis'. According to my view on reality we had
a nice 11% change in voting stuff so why not reward the Dutch
society with the responsibilities they have reaped up (the guy
named Jaap the Hoop Scheffer is the political leader of the NATO
forces, he is Dutch just like me...)
(29 March 2008) Today we take a look at the
three US presidential hopefuls, it is only a look because a
comprehensive study of their mental capabilities would take years
because they have to 'relate' to the US populace while at the same
time try to be 'smart' in leading the nation. This equates to
asking a heroin addict to 'lead' the DEA.
Here we go:
1) McCain is the leading Republican contestor,
he is known for being a Vietnam prisoner of war and as such is
against stuff like Guantanamo Bay (or however you spell that weird
Cuban international prison).
On McCain I can proof he is dumb to the bone:
In the past McCain asked for many more
soldiers in Iraq, he constantly asked for 200+ thousand soldiers
or more. Me in the advisory role of the Iraqi resistance knew that
it was utterly impossible to cough up more white and black trailer
thrash with the given enlistment bonuses of only 70 thousand US$.
Yet McCain kept on calling for over 200K extra soldiers for over
six months, so no one in the US military was capable of
communicating that these were fantasies...
So, only on the Iraqi detail: McCain asked
for a sevenfold compared to what was real.
2) Hillary Clinton.
She uses her female powers to get elected
(when you vote for me you have the first female president in the
USA). A lot of her followers buy that crap but is she suitable to
command 50% of the world defense budget while we have two wars
going on in Iraq and Afghanistan?
She cannot even control the sexual desires of
her own husband so how is this nutty going to control 50% of world
For example when you ask a platoon to vote
for their next leader they hardly come up with drill sergeant
number one but they prefer weasel nr 13. Weasel nr 13 is very similar
to the average US financial 'drill sergeant': The platoon can do
whatever it likes and weasel nr 13 takes the heat from the ranks
No no we cannot have four more years in
letting the US military getting away with it: They have to fight
terror attacks but all they do the last seven years is pumping it
3) The Obama guy:
It looks like the most promising guy but he
has many faults in his thinking. For example he thinks that you
can use the US strategic reserve of oil to bring down oil prices
on the international markets. (Here
is some Reuters stuff on that stupid detail). Obama thinks he can
use the strategic reserve as some Central Bank...
Conclusion: We face three idiots where Obama is the lesser of
idiots compared to McCain or that Clinton thingaling.
End of this update.
(28 March 2008) Ok ok I have to make the
obligatory US markets wrap up so here we go:
This was a boring week because no matter how
negative the news was, the DOW Jones stayed above the 12 thousand
threshold. Therefore we analyze why this could be, where
is the money coming from that constantly pump up the DOW?
Today I received the following news: Of all
outstanding derivatives former investment bank Bear Stearn Cos had
about 10% of it or just 13 thousand billions (or about one US
gross domestic product size). The friendly take over bank JP
Morgan Chase has another 50% so the new conglomerate JP Chase Bear
Morgan Cos Stanley has about six times
the US gross domestic product as sold derivatives contracts.
Of course the puts and the calls cancel out one another if we were
in a normal market situation.
But we have also given sound proof to the fact that the whole US
financial sector is nothing but a so called Ponzi
financial unit (that means they have to borrow money in
order to pay for the interest obligations, here
is a Bloomberg file on how this works on a small scale).
Of course lots of US financial institutions have done the same
easy to understand math and bought more puts compared to calls.
Regulators have complained for a few years that there is no
sufficient book keeping on sold derivatives so advanced statistics
are simply not possible because you
only have a big pile of sold contracts.... (Just like with the
mortgages, nothing new.)
Therefore the whole 'six times the US GDP
gamble' can easily be disrupted via a few percent of the
underlying assets going into 'the wrong direction'.
Yet the only thing JP Chase Bear Morgan Cos
Stanley can do in pumping up vital under laying assets (pumping up
the stock markets) is via selling that off balance stuff that
still has value: put options.
Weighing all in all; the
assets of the US Federal Reserve cannot take a hit of this size.
In the future at some point these weird rescue operations will
end. There is no denying this, let me only put a link to an easy
to understand Washington Post file about the 'changing role'
of the FED.
Lets leave it with that, till updates &
have a nice life.
(27 March 2008) After a long wait we now have
combined reserves of the US commercial banks standing at a
negative of -61788 millions. So the combined stuff is now
'officially' 61billion in the red.
In the next link look at the third column
that gives the 'non borrowed reserves' of the US commercial banks.
In the seventh column you can find the auction money stuff and
where you can find details of the FED auctioning US Federal bonds
instead of US$ is still unknown to me. Link:
As you see, the combined 'non borrowed
reserves' have gone negative from -17174 million just two weeks
ago to -61788 now while the FED also states the next (source)
The negative level of non
borrowed reserves is an arithmetic result of the fact that TAF borrowings are larger than total reserves.
Comment: Now the combined US commercial are
sinking deeper from 60 to 80 trillion in borrowed stuff, their non
borrowed stuff has declined 61788 - 17174 = 44614 millions. So the
FED accepting worthless collateral of 20 billion gives rise to
44.6 billion less bank reserves in just two weeks...
The arithmetic of the FED is a little bit weird don't you think?
That's it, till updates.
(20 March 2008) In the US stock market update
for this week we take a look at how bad news is perfectly spun to
be good news that rallies the markets. The two largest US mortgage
lenders are Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae, they are so called
government supported (or sponsored) enterprises. These two
companies were 'upgraded' by 'analysts'. What does that mean? Well
the US government took the next action: Instead of 30% of
'reserves' (regularly core capital) they now only need 20% of this
stuff to cover for mortgages that go wrong.
Freddie Mac for example had an estimated 37.9
billion US$ of reserves at the end of 2007 and has a mortgage
portfolio of (estimated) 1.8 trillion or 1800 billion US$. The
estimated reserves of 37.9 were 3.5 billion above the 30%
threshold so 30% = 37.9 - 3.5 = 34.4 and hence 20% = 22.9 billion
in lower threshold reserves are the new standard.
To put it simply:
Under the old regulation rules we had one US$ in reserve for every
52 US$ of outstanding mortgages and now it will be at most one US$
for every 79 US$ of outstanding mortgages...
That is far beyond 2% where as a comparison banks have to have at
least 8% in reserves.
My own calculations indicate that median
house prices will fall at least 30 to at most 50% from the top
value reached mid 2006, you do not have to be an accountant to see
Fannie Mac and the older Freddie Mac are doomed.
is the from that government agency that 'regulates' the stuff.
And this is how bloomberg spins this into good news (source),
March 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rallied, capping the first weekly advance in a month, after an analyst said more mortgage purchases by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will help stabilize the home-loan market and Merrill Lynch & Co. advised clients to buy General Electric Co.
And together with a bit more of that fake
news Wall Street rallied a few hundred points... As Russ Winter
once said: We are living in a financial world where elephants can
fly. So far for the market wrap up.
In order to show you how much the US Federal
Reserve is in disarray (this is the third time I observe such a
thing) we take a look at the H3 report. I should have been out 30
minutes ago but they just reposted the one from last week...
At previous times it was posted in time
(22.30 hours local time every Thursday) but you could easily see
it was full of faults. This time they simply repost the old one,
not often you see a central bank in such a disarray.
(18 March 2008, second temporary update) It
is not confirmed by more sources so lets say it is a rumor just
like Bear Stern Cos was, but the source is reliable and I only put
the quote and give no comment. Quote:
0.52%. That’s the number you need to know, not the 75 basis point cut in the Fed Funds target to 2.25%. 0.52% is the rate at today’s 4 week Treasury bill auction.
(18 March 2008, temporary update) Today the
Federal Reserve lowered with 75 basis points and of course further
declines on Wall Street are postponed by a few days. And now the
US$ is the second lowest rating currency.
Let me keep this update short: I hope that
the ECB will answer with a 25 basis point rise so we will have
less inflation and avoid that stupid real negative interest rates.
Given the demographics it is far more important that the populace
keeps on saving and consuming is only second or third to that...
Following the lead of the USA is unwise; better have a strong
currency and if the US$ wants to go the old Italian lire path just
let them do that.
(17 March 2008, second temporary update)
Rumors say that the FED will start pumping up the reserves of the
US commercial banks. What are the facts?
--Under the TAF rules the US central banks
valuate the offered collateral, under the rescue plan the clearing
banks of the primary dealers will inform the NY Federal Bank of
the value of the offered collateral...
--Under the TAF rules foreign banks could only get 50% in auction
money of the offered collateral, now Deutsche Bank and Banque
Paribas can tell the NY folks what the true value of the offered
collateral is and get a 100% return on that value...
So far the facts, and now I have found out
that Deutsche Bank is a clearing bank (I did not know that) now I
understand why so called 'analysts' like that Mayo shithead told
disinformation like "Total mortgages are 10 trillion
US$" many months ago.
Lets wait and see, may be the FED will start
pumping up reserves or may be not. May be they will come to their
senses or may be I have a flaw in my logic.
And look at the bright side: May
be via Deutsche Bank and Banque Paribas we can dump some of that
shit that is parked in Europe for at least half a year on the
balances of the bank where it belongs: The US Federal Reserve... After
all they brought us into this credit crunch shit, the USA is to
blame first and the UK second and after that ECB's Trichet...
(17 March 2008, temporary update) Today the
US Federal Reserve launched a plan to save the 20 largest US banks
from collapsing thus preventing the rather foreseeable meltdown of
the US financial system. Here
if the FED statement on that detail.
The only remaining question is: Why is Bear
Stern Cos sold for 2 US$ a share and not simply included in that
plan? Would the Bear be the only one with complete rubbish on her
off balance Basel one assets? But then why gave the FED a
guarantee of 30 billion to overtaker JP Morgan?
I can only say I am puzzled, why save in
potential the 20 largest but let the old Bear being eaten up by
JPM? Do you know?
Now we have this large rescue operation at
hand, what can we learn from that? Now foreign banks can ask their
stuff back from the Americans without being afraid to trigger a
massive meltdown of the US financial sector...
Today we also had TICS data, they measure the
streams of capital to and from the USA. Lets start with the
conclusion from Dec 2007 (source),
Monthly net TIC flows were positive $60.4 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were positive $8.4 billion, and net foreign official flows were positive $52.1 billion.
And today the Jan 2008 figures came out (source),
Monthly net TIC flows were positive $37.4 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were negative $38.2 billion, and net foreign official flows were positive $75.5 billion.
Comment: One sparrow doesn't make it a Summer
but finally private stuff flows the other way. The fact that
official flows grew is easy to understand: because the dollar is
falling central banks are forced at adjust their portfolio's in US
holdings, that is comparable of index trading in stocks, for
A pension fund is obliged to follow a stock index and a known bad
company issues more stock, in that case the pension fund is forced
to buy some of that stock because by obligation they have to
follow the index.
Conclusion: TICS data are only positive due to artificial sources.
At last: Update in the Nightmare files, here
is the link and I think the 20 bank rescue plan will fail because
when you do a bit of calculations it is not serious money at all.
Only serious money will prevent a financial meltdown.
(16 March 2008) In order to understand how a
lousy job the local business channel RTL7 here in Holland is doing
we just take a look at some simple facts:
---About two weeks ago they stated the the US
Federal financial details were something 'to be jealous upon'.
This is an idiot remark because together with
the tidal wave of bankruptcies that will hit the commercial US
financial sector, the Federal financials will go down under too.
Already in the year 2004 you could foresee that US Federal bonds
would loose the AAA status one way or the other. Here is another
---The February 2008 US Federal deficit was $175.56 bln
So what explains all this idiotery? Well RTL7
(or RTLZ) looks too much at the NSBC or the CNN channel and try to
imitate them. Therefore they invite folks from the bank Theodor
Gillisen or ask advise from Aegon or the Dutch Postbank or
whatever, but they never ever ask insight from academics but only from
folks who have vested interests in keeping the news as it is.
Facts are that you only need a tidy bit of
academic insight to calculate that the entire US economy needs
another 4 trillion, or 4000 billion US$, in order to stay
'profitable'. And what will the RTLZ high paid journalists do?
They will ask shampoo producing CEO's about the 'economic
outlooks' for this year and even beyond...
They will constantly loose themselves in irrelevant details and
will only ask 'nice questions'.
Till updates, have a nice life or try to get
(14 March 2008) US market wrap up for this
This was a week of consolidation of the
market decline, on Monday the US Federal Reserve tried to spoil it
by promising to take about 200 billion of worthless paper from the
balances of the US commercial banks (AAA rated mortgage paper is
allowed as collateral) and in return give AAA rated highly liquid
US Federal bond paper... The DOW Jones climbed 400 points on the
news and nobody wondered why the FED can issue bonds because that
is the task of the Treasury... (More on that below.) We see:
beside the climbing of the leverages of the last years we also
have a climb towards liquidity.
Yesterday it were only rumors but today it
was confirmed: Investment bank Bear Stearns Cos will lead the way
into the easy to foresee collapse of the US financial system. Just
a few other banks saw the rain coming and Bear Stearns declared
"Over the last 24 hours a strong decline in liquidity was
It is not known at date how big this decline is.
All in all: Luckily the DOW below 12 thousand
just like last week, but all in all I hoped to be at 11.5 thousand
points right now so the FED made indeed a 'smart move'.
End of the market wrap up.
Now a bit more about why the US Federal
Reserve should have US bonds on her balances. You can find the
details of that in the SOMA files but all in all it is very
simple: When the US treasury needs money they can issue bonds to
the public (thus raising the official debt level) or for example
go to the FED: the FED buys a few billions of US Federal bonds and
since the government now only has an obligation on herself the
official debt level is not changed... (This is not fraud, this is
US law and non GAAP accounting, there is no problem this is all
anchored in law.) Also; the SOMA files contain the collateral for
the money in circulation (that is very normal by the way).
But there are lots of more places where the US
government has sold Federal bonds to herself, a few trillions are
also found in the Social Security funds. Very handy because even a
lot of Republican senators think the Social Security funds are
well funded because at any given time you can sell these Federal
bonds on the very liquid markets... Nice fairy tale or
(12 March 2008, temporary update) Once more I
wonder why the local journalists from the Radio Tele Luxembourg
(RTL7) can be so utterly stupid... They often tell us that the US
government financial stuff is something to 'be jealous' upon and
so any idiot can see they have never studied the wonderful concept
of 'hidden debt'.
Yet a few days ago these RTL7 weirdo's
reported on the Carlyle Capital Corporation
(CCC) stuff and guess what??? The RTL7 weirdo's came up with a
leverage of 31 for just one company listed at our beloved stock
exchange the AEX.
Why they present this as some exception I do
not know, my easy to understand calculations indicate that the
entire US financial sector needs 2 to 3 trillion more borrowed
money in the year 2008 in order to stay 'profitable'.
There is some rudimentary support on this
FBR's Miller estimates that $11 trillion of outstanding U.S. mortgage debt is supported with roughly $587 billion of equity. That's a leverage ratio of 19 to one.
Comment: When will shitheads like we find
them at RTL7 tell a bit of truth at the populace? Answer: Only
after the kill because they are shitheads by definition.
From the marketwatch article we also have the
Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages usually follow the movement of 10-year Treasury bonds, but this relationship has broken down as de-leveraging in the financial system takes hold.
Comment: Wanna bet the weirdo RTL7 journo's
will not report on the breaking down of the leverage stuff exactly
in line with the CNN weirdo's?
In case you want to read my source file, go
at your own risk (aspx files from nasdaq.com have destroyed my
computer many times in the last few weeks). Here is the
Tip: Try to get the code after 'aspx.?guid='
into your browser but do not forget to get some good clone
software in order to restore your computer when needed...
Have a nice life, or try to get one like for
example the developers of aspx have...
(10 March 2008, temporary update) We all know
what bank reserve are: that is some kind of value that has to be
kept and guarded and cannot be used in order to do normal banking
business like lending out money.
And so we wonder; why is the US Federal
Reserve accepting 'non borrowed' value from the bank balances in
order to exchange this for temporary loans to those banks? They
say it is for 'providing liquidity' but the auction money simply
can't be used for normal banking business because they have to be
part of the reserves...
Do you get it? There is some flaw in the
By the way, here is the file from the latest
And it says: fifty billion of new auction money (in exchange for
bank reserves) hence the total reserves of the US commercial banks
is now about forty billion US$ in the negative. I don't get it;
the Americans say that this money auctions are 'very smart' so it
looks logical that we are being Enronized on this. After all the
FED allowed the Americans to sell mortgage crap to foreigners and
you can wonder why they did that...
And I think I have to send a few more emails
to the International Monetary Fund because I still have no answer
on my email from a few weeks back.
(07 March 2008) Not often it is observed that
the Americans do actually something smart, but the next is: Every
time I visit nasdaq.com my Windows program breaks down and has to
be installed again. On the one hand it is annoying and on the
other hand it is actually a bit funny. Also the firewall and anti
spy and virus software does not work much longer after visiting
It isn't much of a problem: I have a perfect crack from a clone
program that restores my perfect crack from the Windows program so
I can use my illegal website software for updating this
Lets get serious; The US market wrap up:
This week we finally saw some good falling
action on the US stock markets, after a long wait the DOW Jones is
finally below 12 thousand. Year to date the DOW declined over 10%
and why it goes at the snail speed I don't know...
As a comparison our Dutch stock market the AEX has declined over
15% and here in Holland we have a business channel named RTL7. And
today after the non farm payroll decline of 63 thousand the DOW
Jones went up and as usual the stupid journalists from RTL7 asked
'But who are the buyers???' And in utter bewilderment they ask it
again so it is proven once more: This world has no shortage of
Oh oh stupid RTL7 journo's; it is computer program trade that does
this kind of stuff, the SEC allows this kind of market
manipulation because it is only used to pump the markets
So far this market update.
But the RTL7 journo's are not always stupid;
today they had very funny news. A fund that is traded on the AEX
named Carlyle Capital Corporation (CCC) had it's stock trading
stopped because some banks asked for it's bankruptcy. Details say
that in June last year it had 670 million in capital when it
entered the AEX and in no time they borrowed money until they had
21 billion US$ (so a leverage of about 30). And what did they do?
CCC bought only Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stuff...
The funny thing is: CCC is owned by the most rich families in the
USA and they are looking at a nice 15 billion in value vaporized.
Next and last item: For many months already
the Israelis try to turn the Gaza strip into a Warsaw ghetto light
version. They withhold food, fuel, medicine and all kinds of stuff
you need to survive. Why they want it to be Warsaw ghetto light I
don't understand exactly because all I know is that they have a
minor dispute with the democratic elected Palestine government.
The Israelis kill Palestines in relatively large numbers, why this
is I do not understand exactly because on the Israeli side there
are only a few wounded.
Yesterday a lone gunman shot eight students
at a religious school, compared to the hundreds and hundreds of
dead Palestines it is just peanuts. Just peanuts, yet the entire
Israel is in a state of shock and only lamentating 'But these 14
to 16 year old children are innocent'. Again I do not grasp it: In
a few years time all of these students would have entered the IDF
and hence: kill Palestines in Warsaw ghetto light numbers. Again I
do not understand it: exactly why would these potential soldiers
A few days ago here in Holland a horrible
case of child abuse surfaced; the courthouse details are ugly but
there was some Dutch father who more or less on a daily basis did
beat his sons with a baseball bat. If for example in the future
these sons get children themselves, it would be reasonable that
the authorities (and family of course also) would monitor them.
This only to prevent stuff like that from happening again.
We all know details like the Warsaw ghetto,
yet a people like that is allowed to run a nation and there is no
proper monitoring. When they kill Palestines in the hundreds and
thousands they only get applause from the Western societies with
the USA in front.
Again: I do not understand...
Till updates, have a nice life or try to get
(05 March 2008) Who says central banks are
boring? They are not, in fact they are hot! Because now we have
proofed that the US economy has over 50 trillion of debt on
herself and now we have proof that for many years on a row debt
always growth faster compared with the gross domestic product, we
can take a look at the hip G 19 release of the US Federal Reserve.
What is the case?
We all know that the superior debt driven US
economy was grounded a little bit in Q4 2007, I do not recall the
exact numbers but GDP growth was below 1% on an annualized basis
as far as I know reality.
To proof that the mountain of debt will kill
itself we only quote from the G 19 release (source):
Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 4-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007 and rose 5-1/2 percent over the year as a
whole. In December, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 2 percent.
Comment: Consumer credit for this fat bags
obese society is still above GDP growth so I guess we will have to
wait a few months longer before reality sets in. And please do not
come at my door stating that increased retail sales are just a
reflection of inflation while helicopter Ben will do all that is
needed in bringing rates down to 'preserve growth'.
Please get real: I will have my 7000 reading
on the DOW one way or the other.
Till updates, have a nice life or try to get
(04 March 2008) Only a boring update made in
the NightmareOnWallStreet files, here
is the tale of king Atsivistscheisse. And, for the rest, I can say
to the combined European defense forces: cut the use of the
Microsoft windows systems as soon as you can. You, just like me,
already had our doubts back in 2001 but I can tell you:
When you want your deep secrets constantly
popping up in Washington keep on using that worthless Windows XP
and that Vista stuff. I will not turn to details but cut that crap
(or face the consequences).
Hey my dear European military folks: Want to
have a reality check? Just ask political NATO leader Jaap de Hoop
Scheffer if windows is safe to use...
Have your check & till updates.
(01 March 2008) Ok ok, with large disgust I
have to write the US market wrap up:
This month the US stock markets only declined
a lousy 3% so this is pure shit.
End of the market wrap up.
In another development I can say that cyber
blasting against me is very high, I can only hang out at the
internet for at most 10 to 20 seconds or otherwise all firewalls
or spy detecting programs are hijacked...
I don't know how to react; I wanted the
impending US presidential elections to be free from outside
influences but right now my emotions say: Why not turn it into
Spanish elections? After all, my calculations indicate that a
civil blast of just 120 to 130 dead US civilians will give victory
to McCain while on the other hand that Obama thing will guarantee
withdrawal from Iraq (but likely not Afghanistan).
Lets turn it into a Salomon verdict: We chop
the US presidential baby in half and give one half to McCain and
the other to Obama. If the computer attacks against me continue, I
have to consult the Iraqis about who they like more.
After consultation (as usual written in some upbeat of filled US
military coffins) I will reconsider if US election will be free or
That's it, till updates.
(22 Feb 2008) Ok, funny US market wrap up: As
on Wednesday and today on Friday US stocks were climbing. Not on
the back of any economic news but simply on the back of computer
trading programs. Trading programs work best in a thin market so
the brave US investors can sit back and let the programs do the
work and the investors can concentrate on what the do best:
Eating one more hamburger and grow more
obese... Here is the DOW graph:
End of the market wrap up.
We have a new update in the Nightmare files
where I explain that in fact we are over 78 billion of combined US
commercial bank reserves in
the red, when you eat too much hamburgers you will never
understand such a nice detail...
Till updates & please more hamburgers,
the more the better it is because the USA still has her brightest
days to come: The days when we have 100% of the population
(15 Feb 2008) Ok ok, the US market wrap up:
How is the decline to a DOW level of 7000 going? Well rather bad
this week; we had three days of climbing stocks, one day of lower
and today was rather flat.
But there were two chunks of very good news:
Chunk one: One of the bond insurers was
downgrades six nods and when one sheep is over the hill the rest
Chunk two: Yesterday I could not prove it but
today I can: Total reserves of the US commercial banks is at least
78009 million in the negative and declining at a speed of 2
billion US$ a workday.
My gut feeling says that total bank reserves will act just like
the housing prices and therefore in some weeks or months it will
So I think I will make it to the 7000 DOW
target, there is no reason why not.
In another development I still have no answer
from the International Monetary Fund on my email, those guys are
always the first to slaughter government spending from developing
nations when things have gone wrong. But now it is the USA they
keep their coward mouths shut. Slime is what they are. Utter pure
Lets end the week on a positive note, here
are some comics around the financial downturns in the USA and all
those idiots that bought those US crap. Didn't I already say in
2004 to keep away from US housing stuff? Well idiots who do not
listen will get burned and that is exactly what they deserve: how
could you be so stupid as to trust the Americans when it comes to
finance? How could you?
And in case you did not read the funny 'you
walk away' update (here
it is once more), the Financial Times has a lovely article about
banks doing the same on a far larger scale. Here
is the beauty.
(14 Feb 2008) Over the last two weeks the
combined reserves of the US commercial banks have declined another
20 billion or 2 billion every working day.
is the update in the NightmareOnWallstreet file, please remark
that the FED takes half the pain so only 10 billion decline in the
'official' commercial bank reserves...
(14 Feb 2008, temporary update) Why is the
pattern always the same? Every time I use my right of free speech
and every time I throw in some big stuff, why do I always have
these nasty and weird computer problems?
There is just too much of what I call
'Gestapo resistance' in the system; these are folks that are too
cowardly to ring my door bell and instead they attack my
Well, since my computer is still running I
only cut and paste the email that I made to the International
Monetary Fund or the IMF. Here it is:
Fr: R. Venema
According to the
chief media affairs from the World Bank I have to ask you this
Can you confirm
that the combined reserves of the US commercial banks are in
the negative for some time now?
Details can be
In the h3 release
the reserves are published and all you need to do is take a
look at the column 'non borrowed (3)' that gives the season
adjusted numbers. Right now combined US commercial banks are
about 9 billion in the red zone and it is more or less
declining at a speed of 800 million a day.
Can you confirm
this insight please?
Thanks for your
attention, greetings, Reinko Venema.
Now can those computer weirdo's please leave
me alone? If you are not able of understanding that a nation that
picks up at present debt at the next speed:
--One GDP debt every 2,5 years, or
--Every year 40% of GDP more debt while we have only long term 3%
is a nation that will not live much longer.
You can have a mighty arsenal of weapons but
you don't fool me.
Till updates & have a nice life or try to
(08 Feb 2008) Ok, it seems confirmed that a
fifth undersea internet fiber cable has been cut in the Mid East
but for the time being I cannot comment on that detail. (Ok ok, I
never expected it to stop at only three cables but lets wait and
see if it will rollover five or stops at this rather pleasant
Before we do the US market wrap up I want to
thank some anonymous analyst from a bank not named here fore
sending the info I needed. Thanks for that and sorry I came a bit
hard down on you because I activated some superiors of you but
don't forget: You started insulting me and if you have some career
damage I am sorry.
There is always a bigger ego & your bank could make lots of
millions if you understand my insights instead of insulting
We go to the US market wrap up:
1) No significant losses on Wall Street this
week but volatility is sharply up and that is good news because it
makes options more expensive.
2) There was lots of commotion about bond insurers that needed to
be saved, like expected stuff fell apart because 'too expensive'.
That is also good news.
3) The US markets are holding up relatively good; over the month
of January decline was only 5 to 6% while my Dutch based AEX index
declined 15%. My compliments go to the US computer programs that
are very good in propping stuff up, once you understand the size
of computer programs trading stocks and forex the charts are far
more easy to understand.
So that's it for the market wrap up, don't
forget that in the year 2008 in theory the entire US financial
sector needs about 2500 billion more debt (there is no such amount
out there of course) so we will see the one financial company
after the other go down... Until now there is nothing that can
stop my 2500 billion baby, only the computer trading programs are
a good line of first defense... And again: My compliments.
(07 Feb 2008, temporary update) Today I was
utterly disappointed by the ECB not raising rates, we have M3
money growth above 11% and we have YoY consumer inflation at 3.2%
and rising and these fuckheads do not raise... Well it looks like
we are on the path to stagflation since the M3 money growth will
guarantee the inflation and the too low 4% rate will guarantee the
stagnation (like in Japan for some decades right now)...
Oh, are there some weirdo European central
bankers that know it better?
Well you fuckheads, why not read this old
Financial 2 update where I explain to some sovereign
funds not to pump in silly amounts like 3, 5 or 8 billion US$ into
US commercial banks. Remark that this update was published on 13
Now the fuckheaded European central bankers go to the h3
release from the US Federal Reserve and they look in the
column 'non borrowed (3)'. In the 'non borrowed' column you find
the combined reserves of the US commercial banks.
Aren't the combined reserves negative right
now? And if the foreigners would have waited a few months longer,
would they not have gotten far better deals?
So you weirdo European central bankers, if
you think you know it better than me, why don't you surprise me?
(01 Feb 2008) Wall Street market wrap up:
This week, helped by the Federal Reserve rate
cuts, the DOW ended about 5% higher so this was a horrible week.
On the other hand, as anyone idiot can see: now the rates are so
low that there is only little ammo left at the FED.
Also this week it became known that a so
called bond insurer was downgraded from AAA to AA. To my amazement
in the USA municipals, cities, states, Federal Agencies etc can
buy an AAA status... You simply don't believe that at first sight
but you must never forget we are dealing with the Americans, here
is the proof from Nasdaq dot com, quote:
Bond insurers agree to pay principal and interest when due in a timely manner in the event of a default -- a $2.4 trillion business that offers a credit- rating boost to municipalities and other issuers that don't have AAA ratings. Without those top ratings, insurers' business models may be imperiled.
Comment: The insurer takes payments over when
the bond issuer defaults, so there is a giant collection of risk
at the insurer and in fact bond issuers have AAA rating.
It looks like a foolish thing to do: the more organizations you
have that are 'too big to fall' the deeper problems you will face.
Don't forget: average lifespan of a company is only 25 years in
the Western world.
The OECD officials stated more or less the
next: Bernanke must know something about the US economy we do not
know. So one more organization that does not do it's homework
Do these dumb OECD officials know that, just an example, combined
on balance reserves of the US commercial banks dived in the red
this week? Very likely not so they are just another bunch of
dumbo's like there are so many already.
May be dumbo is not the right word, most people have too much
trust because when dealing with the Americans you must always
check and recheck (and very often it is found they are lying, it
is their second nature for reasons not completely understood right
So far this boring weekly market wrap up.
(31 Jan 2008) It was a bit of a waiting but
it is now officially in:
Combined reserves of the US commercial banks
is minus nine billion..
This is in line with expectations and may be
my reader wants to know: How come that still no bank is declared
That is a good question, in a normal world
things would be so but modern banks also have large so called off
balance assets (often total off balance assets are heavy in the
deep, rumors indicate it is about 30% of total top asset value but
I cannot prove that of course since off balance is off
balance). Well in those off balance things they still have some
positive value to be found and that makes that the Federal Reserve
does not interfere... The fact that an entire off balance scheme
is deeply in the red is not regulated... That's the way it works
In case you want to see this historical
moment for yourself: go to
and scroll down to the column 'non borrowed (3)', there are the
reserves listed. The column 'term auction credit' is also highly
interesting; banks can anonymously take part in those auctions to
get a few billions more on their sheets (while pumping some
worthless so called collateral from their off balance sheets to
the Federal Reserve balance where it pops up as 'assets').
Do you understand the giant proportions of
But I have to admit; the Federal Reserve
fights brave, may be some four star Pentagon general should be
stationed over there as an observer (learn how to fight smart
instead of stupid). Yet, as most US central bankers must know, you
cannot win this.
Thus finally Alan Greenspan is one of
my best friends...
At last the nightmare files are updated with
some nice graphics. Here
is the entry.
(28 Jan 2008, temporary update) Ha ha, this
is funny: Are the Iraqis staging financial attacks too? Read this AFP
file on a big blaze at the Iraqi Central Bank... Ha, that
would be real funny!
For the rest I have a small correction to
make: The Federal Reserve H3 release is updated once a week but
new info is only added every two weeks (while I thought it was
completely updated every week).
So we have to wait another three days before we know if the
combined US commercial banks have a negative reserve... (Well only
adjusted reserves are not in the red yet.)
After a few hours of thinking (and smiling
softly) I have decided to place the email I did send to the
Baghdad Multi National Forces (major Stephen Lamb to be precise).
Here is the email, quote:
In some previous email stuff I have
promised you to stop all that large killing of American military
slime because 'from now on I only use financial attacks'. Likely
you do not remember that email because Americans are stupid by
Well, this is just the beginning of
staging financial attacks & here we go:
In just six weeks time the combined
US banks had reserves of over 43 billion seeing vaporized to
only 200 million. They had some Mark 77 stuff Steven and we all
know that the Mark 77 is not forbidden by international law
because you folks use a bit different ingredients...
Well, here is the proof that banks
have only 200 million left (look at the 'non borrowed (3)'
The US military simply deserves this
future kind of shit, they have worked for it and they have
Comment: This burning of the Iraqi Central
Bank is just so beautiful because the Mark 77 is a fire bomb...
Further nice detail: The email was posted five days ago & that
one is also charming.
At last: The Iraqi government can ask itself if it still is wise
policy to neglect my writings, for example we still have no law
that forbids selling oil to the USA for a 100 years (no I am not
crazy, I am a scientist and if the Iraqi law says 98 years you
won't hear much complaints from me).
Till updates, have a nice life or try to get
(25 Jan 2008) This is the fourth weekly
market wrap up; how is the NightmareOnWallStreet keeping up???
This was a horrible week for my beloved
nightmare because Federal Reserve central banker lowered rates
with a staggering 75 basis points or 0.75%. Not only the FED fund
rate but also those that bring down mortgage rates in the long
It was clear we had a hefty slap in the face
this week, in order to understand how hefty the FED attack carpet
bombing attack was just look at this quote (from nasdaq.com of
By Kate Gibson
U.S. stocks on Friday faltered, with the nerves of investors frayed and their expectations reduced for next week's Federal Reserve meeting, which already weighed in with an emergency rate cut earlier this week.
Despite the drop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and S&P 500 Index ( SPX) eked out slight gains for the week, the Dow gaining 0.9% and the S&P advancing 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (RIXF) finished with a weekly drop of 0.6%.
Comment: Do you see how rough it was for me
this week? Both the DOW Jones and the broad based S&P 500
ended the week on a positive note and there was only a bit of help
from the Nasdaq that ended lower.
Stuff is easy to understand: Bernanke versus Reinko is 2:1.
I will not deny it: this week Bernanke has
In other developments I have gained at lot:
For example now I understand a bit more how large the influence of
computer based trading is, for example our Dutch AEX was down 20%
and the DOW Jones only 10% and it is indeed validated that
computer based trading is the main culprit in explaining this
weird difference that I am trying to understand for over four
Now I understand the size of computer trades I also understand a
lot more about the behavior on normal trading days.
See yah in the next market wrap up! Till
(24 Jan 2008, temporary update) Weird weird
weird, for the whole day I am waiting for the US Federal Reserve
H3 release because very likely today it will be official:
Total reserves of the
combined US commercial banks is negative...
I am waiting for the 'seasonal adjusted'
figures to be negative too because the non seasonal figures were
already negative. By the way: Why should commercial bank reserves
need seasonal adjustment anyway?
Well according to the FED these reports are
published every Thursday at 4.30 hours local New York time so
10.30 at my local time. They are now over time exactly 31 minutes
and have only adjusted the previous 200 million of combined
reserves to 199 million. But the 23 Jan figure is still missing
(by the way, the climb of 600 points on the DOW on the 75
basis point Bernanke panic day (two days ago) was done by
computer programs and it was not human trading & lets not
forget banks have lots of stock on their balances).
This is how it works over there: 600
DOW points done with computer trading... Highly efficient isn't
That's it for now, I am waiting only waiting
to get the official green light of stating combined US commercial
bank reserves are negative 'seasonally adjusted'.
(23 Jan 2008, temporary update) Today I want
to start with thanking Trichet on his stance, just tell it like it
is to those lawmakers Jean! Well I think you have earned it: All
asking for your execution or your killing are withdrawn.
In the mean time I urge the ECB members to
bring down M3 money growth below the so called 'law of fools'
threshold. That means:
M3 money growth = GDP growth + ECB accepted
Furthermore on inflation: There are only some
consumer/producer inflation numbers in use, try to craft a few
that also include bond/stock/housing markets. I know that is hard
to do and we have to avoid big brother stuff, but it would be
handy if you could trace a small statistical segment of the money
you spit out to study where it goes in society. But don't forget:
The big brother dangers are large but with some serious law that
forbids use of that information in the courthouses individual
freedom can be guaranteed.
The problem is simple to understand: In my
wallet I have a 5€ bank note with the serial number V07370598622
but all my electronic actions are made from Euro's without a
serial number. To put it in Central Bank speak:
We have to find a balance between the upside
benefits of better statistics to the downside risk of less
That's it for today.
(22 Jan 2008) Today the USA Federal Reserve
lowered the rates with a staggering 75 basis points and we only
wonder why. Because we all know central bank policy always takes
months to set in the real economy.
So it is not done on behalf of the real
economy, so what is it then? Is it about unnerving the stock
markets? In their ridiculous statement the FED said that it was
also because some consumers and businesses had a bit more trouble
in getting more debt... That sounds ridiculous, why worry about a
No very likely it is the fact that the entire
US banking system has only 200 million of real reserves left.
Don't believe me? Go to the next file and look at the column
So in six weeks time the US commercial banks
lowered 43794 to 200 million & believe me my dear
reader: This party is only getting started.
Facts are facts: I did not find the 200
million of real bank assets myself, it was Russ Winter (what's in
a name) in this
file. And I can tell you one thing: If more Americans would be
like Russ, I would not have much problems with that country.
Till updates my dear reader.
(21 Jan 2008) Ok ok I have been busy lately
in trying to ram a bit more sense in the financial reporting in
general and placing emphasizes on the total of debt on the US
I hope this
link works because it contains 123 counts when you search that
website on the phrase 'Reinko' (just by sheer coincidence that is
my name also). Just click on a few links to see what and how I am
doing over there.
Long term goal is of course the destruction
of the US military and when I smell some dead meat it is nothing
but logical that above mentioned websites get a 123 count.
Furthermore I only highlight that the Iraqis
should keep the pace of attacks on the oil robbers at such a pace
that they are forced to travel in convoys. In the meantime it
would be handy if all those 'Awakening groups' would do a second
thinking and study history just as it is: Who brought the decade
long economical sanctions to Iraq? Was it Saddam or was it the
USA? Just answer the question please...
That's it for today, till
(20 Jan 2008) Update on the latest Military
Bloody Day: The day Dubya visited Egypt.
We only had 3 reported dead US military slime
and this is very low. I was expecting something in the 6 to 10
range and with a bit of luck may be double digit fun.
Well I just take the statistic just like it
is although it was disappointment we had no reported killings from
the Anbar province... And from the statistical point of view I was
a bit late of declaring this one and from the financial point of
view we had great successes on the US financial markets so it was
a 'mixed week' last week.
The Palestines picked up the date far better
and of course the IDF responded with a relatively large number of
killed children (always an accident and never a declared policy of
course). But facts are facts and a lot of Israelis must have
thrived by the sight of those wounded children... Because if they
do not thrive on stuff like that they would have made peace a long
time ago, but like I argued in the past: They have taken a too
deep look into the German SS soul and they still copy it.
Well that is their problem and not mine.
My problem is to destroy the US military and
weighing all in all we had a good week last week, the interest
beast will very likely destroy the US economy in the year 2008 and
that will destroy the US military and that is what I am after for
Please my dear reader, please think I have
some mental thing because the longer the US debt problem builds
itself up the harder the crash will be... Just 50+ trillion and
the clock is ticking... Just 200+ a month of unpaid interest fees
while the money markets are only focused on the 60+ trade
With a big smile on my face I have to declare
the 'till updates' phrase.
(18 Jan 2008, temporary market wrap up) This
is the third weekly market wrap up, lots went as expected but
there was one US Bank reporting only something like 1.5 billion
loss in Q4 2007... But since also the Federal Reserve has
calculated that the whole US financial sector needs something like
14.9% more debt on it's total of 15,000 billion (thus over 2000
billion US$ more debt is needed) I expect much more reported
losses and down writings. Hundreds and hundreds ob billions more.
Here are the weekly figures from Nasdaq,
By Kate Gibson
A U.S. stock rally dissipated Friday, with equities selling off for a fourth day straight, as new concerns about bond insurers overrode solid results from International Business Machines Corp. and General Electric Co. Also, President Bush called further attention to the economic troubles roiling the globe.
Given that the week included a spree of quarterly reports from the troubled financial sector, it was "pre-ordained to disappoint. We might as well have run around with a target on our back," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.
"The subject matter is disturbing; when we're reminded we need more fiscal policy, it unfortunately shows us the magnitude of the problems we're in," said Hogan.
After a short-lived triple-digit rise, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost more than 100 points, then retraced a bit, closing down 59.9 points to 12, 099.3, giving it a weekly loss of 507 points, or 4%.
Comment: This was a good week, the 12500
points threshold was smacked with ease. Slowly but surely the
average Wall Street trader gets a little bit more insight in the
actual matter at hand: This all will lead into long lasting
recession at least and in the meantime the interest on all loans
will grow and grow.
Total debt on the US economy: 50+ trillion
US$ so at the 5% interest level they need only 2500 billion US$ /
year just to stabilize this debt. For every US citizen this is 170
thousand of debt and over 8000 US$ / year for the interest only.
So the fiscal stimulus as proposed by the
White House simply will not work because figures like 800 to 1200
US$ for every (poor?) taxpayer is just not enough. Given the
present debt levels it is impossible that it works, it will not
work because the USA has what I name the 'obesity effect'. That
means you have to pump in an awful lot of dollars to get one extra
dollar government revenue. It is a self destructing policy so to
By the way, here
is a nice Reuters story telling more on the shadow banking layer.
(14 Jan 2008) Today Wall Street rallied sharp
on the good news from IBM that reported profits up to 28.9 billion
US$ compared to an analysts forecast of 27.8 billion... So 1.1
billion more in mostly overseas markets drove the DOW 1.36% higher
and the Nasdaq 1.57%...
Oh oh, those dear Wall Street idiots and what
fun I will have when the US financial sector starts reporting her
Q4 stuff. Here is a funny quote (source):
Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and Bank of America are expected to announce an aggregate $40 billion in Q4 writedowns, amounting nearly to 0.5% of GDP.
Comment: In the first place 40 billion is not
even one third % of GDP while the US financial sector needs a
rough 2500 billion more debt in 2008 so if they cannot pick up
that amount we will see at least over 10% of US GDP writedowns
totaling over 1400 billion. (In this scenario I expect foreigners
to loan the other 1100 billion US$ needed...).
So Wall Street folks: Can't you see I can be
very positive too?
Till updates my deer Wall Street traders (by
the way is the dear hunting season already open???).
(14 Jan 2008) Ha ha, this is funny: Right now
on the television is a docudrama that evolves around the theme
'the day the dollar crashes'. It is on channel 2 by the broadcast
Yet, the particular scenario offered does not
make much sense, I think that the most likely scenario is a wave
of financial bankruptcies in the USA driven by the 2500 billion
US$ new debt they need in 2008 (inside the financial sector). And
that as that process goes on we see sharp day to day declines in
the value of the US$ and sharp day to day stock/bond markets
Only when panic strikes we can see a crash so
how great is the likelihood of a crash? That depends on in how far
people understand the financial situation in the USA and on that
detail I am not very positive.
No, for the time being I foresee suffocation
of the dollar and not a one day crash to a value of a few Euro
cents. Till updates.
there was just so much news that made me laugh broadly that I have
to give away three prizes, one is for the most stupid question on
military stuff and the others are for the most stupid analysis
concerning financial markets and the most stupid Citi bank mega
star general Petraeus (leader of the Iraqi stuff)
Financial 1; Standard & Poors
(leader of ratings like 'AAA rating')
Financial 2; Chinese & Kuwaiti
'investors' that loan Citi bank 14 billion
most stupid question made by a senior US military commander was
the next (source):
"In this year, EFPs have gone up, actually, over the last 10 days by a factor of two or three, and frankly we're trying to determine why that might be," Petraeus said.
Seldom we have seen such a stupid question,
may be it has a little little minor thing to do with Dubya
visiting the Middle East? How can a guy that is hold up so much as
the savior of Iraq miss such a simple insight?
So David, you have just won the prize for the
most stupid question ever in this entire war against Iraq.
And David Petraeus, just by the way, how come
that the double or tripling during the last 10 days is not
reflected in reported US military deaths? A bit of cooking the
books just like the USA financial system is doing lately?
I guess David just forgot the law of
leadership: In the long run armies get as smart as their leaders
are... And Dubya is now for seven years on a row the commander in
Financial 1; In
the past I had a short email exchange with David Wyss the chief
economist at Standard & Poors about the questionable AAA
ratings of US Federal bonds. Here
is the entry from the NightmareOnWallStreet sheet.
Well just by coincidence I know that the US
economy has over 50 trillion of debt upon herself and this
mountain of debt is growing with over 9% a year lately. To put it
simple: at a 5% interest rate level they need over 18% of their
gross domestic product to pay for the interest.
That is above the total of profits the US economy takes in.
Furthermore the financial sector of the USA
needs an estimated 2.5 trillion or 2500 billion more debt in the
year 2008 to prevent it from collapsing.
When you know stuff like that you suddenly
understand the behavior of all players: from central bankers to US
journalists not asking the right questions.
Of course US government bond is junk status,
there simply is no way they can pay it off with real M1 money.
Here is what Standard & Poors made of it
S&P noted that the US public sector uses a far smaller share of national income relative to other 'AAA' rated countries like the UK, Germany and France, which implies greater revenue flexibility. This coupled with the US being the world's most used currency -- a privileged position that bas not been materially impacted by by recent depreciation and global re-balancing.
Comment: Beside the mountain of debt in the
private sector, the US government has three pillars to bring the
'official debt' down:
Emergency spending, examples: war in Iraq/Afghanistan and
Pillar two: Lending against the
social security funds, in the funds are only 'AAA rated' bonds and
the government revenue was used for other things (thus lowering
Pillar three: Federal Agency bonds,
these bonds are issued via Federal agencies but have no backing of
the Federal government. Thus once more: the official deficit is artificially
So S&P = Arthur Anderson (the former
Enron bookkeeper) only on a far bigger scale...
Congratulations David Wyss! You have won the
prize for the most imbecile, debile financial propaganda there is.
Chinese and the Kuwaitis simply do not understand how easy it is
to calculate that the US financial sectors indeed need 2500
billion US$ so at this point in time it is very stupid to invest
any significant numbers because with a few months of waiting you
get far better deals.
Please my dear Chinese and Kuwaitis, go to
of funds the one last column and look at the bottoms 2 numbers
and calculate the 2500 billion for yourself please.
The Chinese and Kuwaitis have won the prize
for the most stupid mega deal in the year 2008. Congratulations!
is the financial times Media file on the 14 billion deal, it has
to be noticed that 14 billion is just 0.6% of new debt needed by
the US financial sector in the year 2008...
End of this temporary update, have a nice
life or try to get one!
Trichet needs to get killed because
he is fooling us ...
(26 Dec 2007) In the NightmareOnWallStreet
series is written: Poking fun at Alan Greenspan part 0001. Here
it is. Till updates.
(26 Dec 2007) Today we take a look at small
debt: US consumer credit card debt...
According to this six
page file from newsweek dot com it amounts to something like
900 billion; so it is peanuts compared to the stuff I usually
When you write it out, 900 billion is
900.000.000.000 US$ and since we have about 300 million (slimy)
Americans, per capita citizen this is:
900.000.000.000 / 300.000.000 = 900.000 / 300
= 3.000 US$ per US citizen.
Or just 12 thousand for the average four
Rates on credit cards are high, therefore
most house owners take a credit card on their house (that is
called a HELOC or home equity line of credit, a kind of second
mortgage only you have it as a card in your wallet).
Weighing all in all, on all levels of the US
economy (from individual consumers up to the entire financial
sector and even the entire economy) it is a Ponzi scheme. That means
on all levels of the US economy there is more debt needed to pay
for the interest on the outstanding debt.
All we have to do is wait until the
inevitable point of crash is there, all we have to do is wait but
I am expecting it in the year 2008. It's going to be the biggest
crash ever, but that detail I already understood in the year
Till updates my dear reader.
(21 Dec 2007) Yesterday I finally decided to
type a few data from the Z1 release from the Federal Reserve in my
crack of the (American) statistical program named SPSS.
I started doing some analysis of the debt
data and from the scientific point of view it was very rewarding;
I have lots of deep questions to think about the coming time.
But let me not hinder you with deep
questions, lets make a short and simple to understand so called
'executive summary' from my analysis so far.
Executive summary (that even enemy Dubya can
1) Whatever line
of debt you study (let it be Federal debt, Federal Agency bonds,
household mortgages, home equity lines of loans and so on and so
on) always the debt growth faster than the gross domestic product.
So after seven years we have solid proof: The tax cuts simply do
during the last seven years, debt grew 2% quarter on quarter. So
year on year it is 1.02^4 = 8.2%. The entire USA financial sector
picked up debt at a quarterly rate of 2.2% thus year on year it is
1.022^4 = 9.1%.
So yearly debt growth is something like 2 or 3 times gross
domestic product growth.
In the third quarter of 2007 the American financial sector as a
whole picked up (on an annualized basis) over 16.6% of their
entire debt of 14.9 trillion.
That means if economic details stay the same, the US financial
sector picks up 2.5 trillion more debt over the next 12 months.
The extra debt needed for the financial sector only equals the
entire revenue that the US government took in last year: also 2.5
Well I could go on much more longer, but weighing all in all a
default of the entire US economy is foreseen within the timeframe
for a new president. We will have firebrand sales of vital parts
of the US economy (like now already is happening with the selling
out of the bank sector) and most of all: America can no longer afford
her beloved military.
End of the executive summary that even
dumbhead enemy Dubya can understand.
Till updates, by the way: here
is the Z1 release that validates my future explorations...
(20 Dec 2007) This is funny: The US Federal
Reserve has a new 'flow of funds' sheet out in the Z1 release (here
it is). And at the bottom of that file is a link with 'contact us'
so I just had to click it & I wrote:
When you add all financial sector and non
financial sector debt together you get 46 trillion US$ (this aside
from the Federal, State and Agency debt). How is the US economy
going to pay the roughly 2.5 trillion US$ that is needed for the
I mean; 2.5 trillion is over 17% of the gross domestic product and
this problem has to be addressed because otherwise the integrity
of the Federal Reserve is at stake.
Now my dear reader; Want to bet on a million
US$ that they will not answer me?
Till updates & live well and think
(17 Dec 2007, second update) It was very
irritating but today's TICS data were rather high. So I have to
swallow that one and I will not deny it: Today the Americans won
and there are still a lot of dumb people who think investing in
the USA is a safe thing to do...
Since I feel irritated I strike back: See the
Dec entry at the NightmareOnWallStreet files where I show the
audience that indeed the entire US financial sector is Ponzi as
hell. Ha you American fuckheads; Do you run your nation on the
greenback? Well, lets do just that. Till updates.
(17 Dec 2007) I hope that my readers got the
point from my previous update: When interest rates are kept too
low for too long (as was done by our central banks in the USA and
Europe), the markets will take over.
We have seen that in America: When the FED
started tightening the long term commercial rates stayed low so
the housing / stock / bond bubble kept on growing.
And now we see it in Europe where banks charge each other
something like 4.95% while the 'official' rate is 4.00%.
I only want to repeat that it would be wise
to kill or execute European central banker Jean Trichet; these
idiots slander our economy so it is better to kill them...
In the meantime I observed the first bank
that has rigid plans to make profit of the impending crash in
America; it is ING/Postbank. The guy that runs the options on
currencies spoke words like 'In America every body is running
around with six credit cards with a full years salary of debt on
it so that will explode'.
I would have put it more diplomatic: Total debt on the entire US
economy is so large that for an interest level of just 5% you need
over 17% of the gross domestic product. Since 17% is well beyond
the after tax level profit of that economy they are basically
broke and we expect a default on the entire economy.
Yeah yeah, a nice default will do & of
course now we know the 17% number; how can US government bonds
still have AAA ranking? It just has to be far below AAA, how far
exactly I do not know but it must be very far...
If I remember it correctly, today we will
have the TICS
data (the Treasury International Capital System data) out so lets
see if there are still idiots willing to invest in the US economy.
Lets see if there are still idiots left...
Till updates my dear
(14 Dec 2007) Forward, we have to think
So I am thinking forward to the year 2010 or
2011 when there will be left only two banks in the USA. We have by
The Federal Consumer Ponzi Bank of America
Rollover Forever United Bank of America.
The US Senate has just approved the 'minus
five' bill, that means that from now on rates on loans are minus
five percent. The US Senate has done so to revive and revitalize
the US economy. And the RFU has asked me to put up some ideas for
advertising. So I am just a little bit brainstorming:
Bad Credit is Never a Problem at
We can offer you now minus five
percent interest on loans! Be fast, act swiftly because we
have only 50 trillion US$ to give away!
Bad credit = no problem!
What can you do?
You borrow 10 million from us and you pay it back in 10
equal amounts at the end of each year.
So at the end of the first year you pay back 1 million but
you have to withdraw 5% of your loan from it so you pay
back just 500 thousand!
Borrow 20 million and pay back in 20 equal amounts at
years end. Thus after one year you pay back 1 million but
you also get one million interest so you pay nothing!
Borrow 40 million and pay back in 40 equal amounts of 1
million at years end. At the end of the first year you pay
back 1 million but you also get 5% of 40 million = 2
million. Result: after one year you get an extra million
Customer = Happy Bank
Wow man, for the first time in my life I am
considering moving to America forever! And on board of the board
of the RFU is a familiar figure found: Alan Greenspan!
According to Alan these negative rates were
the best invention since fiat money was introduced under the Nixon
regime. Because now people no longer do weird stuff like saving
money but instead bring strength to the US economy. And now with
negative rates the banks create happy customers who never run out
Happy customer = Happy bank
Till updates my dear reader.
(13 Dec 2007) Today we make fun of that fool
Alan Greenspan, what is the case? Well Alan is not capable of
calculation or estimating how large the bubbles in the US economy
are. Not even the most easy to calculate bubble; that one in the
housing markets (those in stocks and bonds are far more difficult
is the Wall Street Journal article & here is the quote from
The value of equities traded on the world's major stock exchanges has risen to more than $50 trillion, double what it was in 2002. Sharply rising home prices erupted into major housing bubbles world-wide, Japan and Germany (for differing reasons) being the only principal exceptions. The Economist's surveys document the remarkable convergence of more than 20 individual nations' house price rises during the past decade. U.S. price gains, at their peak, were no more than average.
Comment: With total and utter bewilderment I
look at the last words, they were no more than average... So Alan
does not know that house prices should only be a certain multiple
of median income. He is a fool that he not uses some 'rules of
thumb' in that detail & it is once more clear that Alan never
ever truly has grasped the details of the responsibilities that
come with fiat money.
Lets not forget: House prices peaked under his watch because
Bernanke is not that long at the helm of the Federal Reserve.
Till updates, have a nice life or try to get
(11 Dec 2007) Today
we wonder about how stupid Americans are, better first read below
at 27 Nov how you can rather easy calculate the bubble size in the
entire US housing market. Now ok ok, that calculation contains a
bit of propaganda because it is reasonable to filter inflation out
and therefore use 1.07^10 instead of 1.10^10
thus giving a 50% bubble size in the US housing market. (By the
way, one of the founders of the Standard & Poors Case
Schilling housing index also predicts a possible 50% decline.)
Now to my amazement when I read this
Washington Post file about so called piggyback (house) loans I
came across the next, quote (source):
Freddie Mac has the potential to influence lending practices by setting conditions for the loans it accepts. But company executives said yesterday that Freddie Mac's power was eroding as investors entered the market.
Amid a loosening of industry standards, Freddie Mac could not afford to sit back and let the market pass it by, the executives said.
"I think what happened over time is, we found that our own caution was making us less and less relevant, and we weren't sure, quite frankly, that our competitors, you know, on the street were being crazy," Piszel, the chief financial officer, said.
"Could we have run for the hills and said we're not going to do any of that?" Piszel asked. "What if things didn't go down? We would basically be just taking our whole future and giving it away."
Comment: The above proofs that this Piszel
guy does not understand elementary economics. You just don't
believe how stupid they are and it gets all the more funny if you
realize that forced sales of homes is mostly triggered via
declining house value...
No no, there is nothing that can stop this housing baby...
(08 Dec 2007) Email email email and lots of
placing comment below financial related articles on our beloved
internet. It is constantly the same message as you find on the
right in the 'Food for thought' files but it is a bit sharpened
At this point in time I can proof that the US
economy as a whole needs over 17% of it's gross domestic product
to pay for the yearly interest fee...
I also tried to put some influence on the
'Jim Cramer cycle' of weird thinking but I am far from sure if
that one did hit the 'Jim Cramer target'. Also a bit of posting at
websites frequently visited by hedge fund folks; just constantly
the same message of '17% of the GDP needed for just the interest
on the debt'.
With that I left the commercial US parts
alone and my attention was drawn to the US system of central banks
and I selected the statistical parts of the 12th member of that
system: The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (the FRBSF).
Here is the content of my email at the
statistical parts of the FRBSF, quote:
To: My fellow statisticians from FRBSF
Fr: Drs. R. Venema.
My dear and beloved folks, with interest I have studied the so called 'flow of funds' in the Z1 release.
I have arrived at the conclusion that together with the debt not mentioned in the flow of funds release, the US economy has a debt of over 50 trillion US$.
Can you confirm this please?
Furthermore, if we make an easy to understand calculation, we choose an
appropriate level of interest lets say 5%. And since 5% of 50 trillion US$ equals 2.5 trillion US$ we must ask our selves: Are US government bonds truly AAA status?
Because 2.5 trillion is over 17% of the US gross domestic product we see with ease:
It cannot be AAA status.
Could you shed a light on my easy to understand calculations?
Greetings from a fellow statistian; Reinko Venema.
So my dear Jim Cramer & my dear Federal
Reserve employees: The talk lately is of a recession yes or no but
should the question not be; Total default of the US economy yes or
no? Now? Where is your big Cramer mouth now?
Till updates, have a nice life or try to get
(07 Dec 2007) Today we are going to do child
math, no not around the impending largest economical crash (or
better: the default of) the US economy.
No no. Yesterday one of my kids came to me
and showed a sheet of paper with a few numbers on it. Can you make
the next number dad? Here are the numbers:
1, 11, 21, 1211, .....
After a minute I surrendered
because I just had no clue about how to use the numbers 1, 11 and
21 to produce 1211 (just like US stock traders have no clue how
company profits should pay the total debt I just guess).
Now dad it is utterly simple:
You must write down what you see! Look: 11 is not eleven but two
one's so you write down 21.
And 21 is one two and one one so you get 1211. Ah, I understood
what I had done wrong: I had used the wrong paradigm in
understanding these 'numbers'.
But later when I was doing the
dishes I suddenly understood: Just like the total US debt
converges towards default of the entire US economy, these numbers
converge too! So when the dishes and pans were all clean again I
sat down and wrote it out:
1, 11, 21, 1211, 3112, 131221,
132231, 232221, 134211, 14131231,
14231241, 24132231, 14233221,
Do you see that 14233221 does
not change anymore? The starting number 1 has found it's limit and
that is 14233221 (and a whole lot of other starting numbers have
this limit too).
Now, suppose you start with a
very large number; what would happen?
Well; take 99 nine's on a row:
999999...999 then you get:
999, 39, 1913, 191321, 19131231,
19231241, 1914132231, 1914232241,
For the math loving folks around
us: How many of these limit numbers are there? I don't have the
slightest clue yet but until now my highest found limit is:
Remark: The tail says 11110
meaning 11 one's and 1 zero.
I don't see a way to construct an even larger limit but I don't
feel like crafting a formal proof for that. No, I think you have
to expand you digit base to get larger numbers, in our usual 10
digit base this likely is the top.
For children it is a big
surprise to see that this process stops somewhere down the line,
give it a try because the younger they are when they see stuff
like this the better they are later in exposing central bankers
telling crap to the populace.
(03 Dec 2007) When I reactivated the
NightmareOnWallStreet on 12 Nov I informed my dear readers that I
had plenty of ammo. In this update
you will not find the mother of all bombs nor the (Russian made)
father of all bombs. No, you will find the grand father of all
housing market bombs and grand father has just returned from the
grave and he is mad as hell. He is mad as hell and with a big bull
horn before his mouth he shouts at his grand children: Why do you
force me to burn down the building!
Oh oh oh, that is some mean old grand father.
Brr, even I am scared...:(
Till updates my dear reader.
(02 Dec 2007) And another update
in the NightmareOnWallStreet series, it is about M3 money supply
and although not very difficult it is rather technical. So if you
want to know what M3 money is, read the update.
(01 Dec 2007) I did some emailing with Standard
& Poors chief economist David Wyss and he validates my
insights as far as I know:
Interest rates of 5% on a total economical
debt of 46 trillion equals at 15 to 16% of the US gross domestic
product. Since 15 to 16% is beyond the total combined profits of
the US economy, they are broke...
See the email exchange in this update
of the NightmareOnWallStreet file.
Of course we will see many rallies in the
last month of the year on Wall Street because those folks are
nothing but a bunch of weirdo's. In the end I will have my
victory, there is nothing that can stop that...
With a little smile on my evil face I salute
you my dear reader & till updates.
(29 Nov 2007) When I returned online again a few
weeks ago it was for two reasons:
--Publish the changed tactics for Iraq &
--Publish the new strategy for Afghanistan for the year 2008.
In Iraq everything goes as smoothly as can be
and now we have a new Osama tape (please read this breitbart
file first before proceeding) it is time to publish the very
short Afghanistan strategy.
Here we go:
Osama calls on the European people to quit
Afghanistan and for months I know the best way of swaying stuff
the right way. It is very simple:
Try to kill at least 26 from the army that
has political leadership in the NATO in the next year.
That is all there is: try to kill at least 26
of those soldiers and the public opinion will be swayed against
further occupation and 'helping' the Afghan landscape &
There is a downside on this: Uruzgan is also an important
transportation hub inside Afghanistan but I do not know the
details. So it is up for the local commanders: Try to make it to
the 26 number (or beyond) but if transport and logistics become
too problematic, do not follow the above advice.
My dear Afghanis, please do not worry about
my personal safety related to the above advice given, I know the
law and I know how the locals think: There will be no juridical
case against me. (Because if they would bring a court house case
against me, the above advice will hit the local newspapers making
it only more likely the advice will be followed up. The Dutch,
often they are so breathtaking stupid...)
Well, originally I planned an update
explaining to economists that we not need at most 2% inflation but
at most 2% deflation, it is a very nice theory but I think I
better wait some time before publishing that one.
Till updates & love you all.
(28 Nov 2007, second temporary update) Flip flip
flip, I tried to email some Standard & Poors employee with the
question why they do not downgrade the US bonds from AAA to far
below that level but now my email program does not work.
Well, here is the text of that email, quote:
Dr. R. Venema, Netherland.
Mr. D. Wyss, S&P, USA.
May I be as bold and
doubt the AAA ratings of the US government bonds?
I know it sounds a
bit strange but I can very easy explain why this is the case:
According to the so
release from the Federal Reserve total US debt is at least
46.6193 trillion US$, if we take a reasonable level of interest
as for example 5% we see that yearly interest amounts to 2.3
trillion or just over 15% of the US gross domestic product.
In practice it has
even to be higher because for example two decades of so called
'emergency spending' from the federal government is not included
in this 'total debt' figure.
It is not hard to
see that the money needed for the interest is a tremendous
amount of revenue's from the GDP, may be it is over the total
amount of money made in the GDP but even then will there not be
enough for basic government spending.
Given the future
liabilities on behalf of for example medicare it is hard to
believe that US government bonds have a AAA rating, lets not
forget that with an AAA rating there has to be a very small
possibility of default. But with an economy that needs over 15%
of it's GDP for interest only, the possibility of default is not
'very small' but 'rather large'.
If Standard &
Poors do not explain to the populace as why the US government
bonds are not AAA rated but far below that, in that case the integrity
of the S&P is at stake. Remember what happened to the
accountancy firm from Enron; you are in the same position now
only this is on a much bigger scale.
With interest I will
look at your reaction, dr. R. Venema.
That's it, boring stuff isn't it? Greetings
& till updates.
(28 Nov 2007, temporary update) Economical news of
--US existing home sales fell for the eight consecutive
--US durable goods fell for the third consecutive month and,
--In a speech Wednesday, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said the central bank can be "nimble" and can't hold the economy hostage to teach speculators
Comment: A normal stock market would worry
about such 'nimble' words, furthermore the beige book indicates
that already a 'downturn' has set in (well in reality the
situation is far more worse than as projected in the beige book).
Didn't I say it yesterday? Irrational reasoning and behavior is
observed and this is validated by the fact that the DOW Jones is
over 300 points up.
I only smile, what a nice trading day have the folks on Wall
Street; lets hope the underlying economy is as just as strong so
P/E ratio's can decline even now we are 300 points up...
Oh oh those weirdo shitheads, those weirdo shitheads.
A last detail: This morning European M3 money
growth came out and it was over 12%. I only repeat that we need to
kill European central banker Jean Trichet. This can be done by all
sorts of means:
potato or butchers knife
the axe (my favorite model is the 600 gram kitchen axe)
pistols, guns & sniper rifles
poison or injecting toilet cleaner in a large enough amount
screwdriver (through the eye or the ear)
baseball bat or a metal bar
car accident a la princess Diana
throw him from a building or before a train
drowning or hanging
car bomb Lebanese style
give or sell him to the Iraqis
You know my dear reader, such high money
growth just indicates that the rates are far too low but will the
ECB do something about it? I have my doubts, just like they do not
warn for the terrible things that will happen in the USA...
(27 Nov 2007) Best economical news of the day:
According to the S&P housing index there is decline of housing
value at an annualized speed of 4.5%.
Lets do some easy to understand calculations
to show what this means:
Total US housing value (excluded business and
government buildings) = 23.3 trillion US$. 4.5% of this is
23.3*0.045 = 1.05 trillion / year or 2.9 billion / day...
But, as always with America, there is more:
Median wages have not climbed in the last 10 year (there was only
inflation correction). On average housing value grew over 10% a
year so since the median did not climb it is very easy to
calculate the bubble size:
1.10^10 = 2.59 so an increase of 159%.
Therefore the bubble size = 259/159 = 61%.
And 61 % of 23.3 trillion = 14.4 trillion so that is more or less
in the size of the entire GDP...
You know my dear reader the above is easy to
understand: There will be a long and deep economical resession in
the USA. That is easy to understand, yet the behavior of those
Wall Street weirdo's is the part that cannot be understood. These
folks are crazy, right now on this trading day the DOW stands
0.80% in the plus... Oh oh the fools; truly sung loose from
Also funny is the next quote as I found it on
the nasdaq.com, quote:
Chicago Fed President Evans said the potential U.S. GDP growth is now "slightly above 2.5%", according to Reuters.
Comment: Well 2.5% GDP growth is just 0.365
trillion a year (I use 14.6 trillion as the US GDP) so the housing
decline is three times the GDP growth & what me worry...;) One
thing is sure: The central bankers of the Federal Reserve system
are very stupid but honest people or smart criminals because they
understand the above easy to make calculations.
But if you study the notes (the minutes) of meetings of these
central bankers than you see they loose themselves in utterly
irrelevant details. And this is a trait that is rather common
inside a Ponzi financial unit: Irrational behavior and reasoning.
It is just a matter of time before the DOW
will hit the 7000 mark again, it is just a matter of time.
Another easy to understand calculation: US
home owners withdrew 654 billion $ (just 7% of dispensable income
so what's the problem?) from their housing value (S&P source,
see page six), that is about 4.5% of last years GPD and if we
adjust the economical growth from 2006 with this 4.5% we seen once
They have all gone crazy in the USA because the adjusted growth
Sincerely yours & till updates; Reinko
(25 Nov 2007) Not all days are filled with war
and/or threatening stupid central bankers. No, today I wrote the
first two files for a feast meal. Here is the index,
we have Greenspan ice and
Shock and awe cake
in the 'dessert desert'.
Rest of the meal will follow later.
(24 Nov 2007) It is about high time I need to
speak some ugly words towards the European central banker Trichet.
So here we go:
My dear Trichet, yesterday the €/$ pair
breached above 1.4950 during the Asian session and what did you
do? You made more or less the statement that 'brutal moves' were
My dear Trichet, may I ask you the following
question? Here we go:
What do you have in between your ears and
behind your eyes? To make it simple for you, you can choose form:
1) A healthy brain with knowledge of the US
Federal Reserve Z1 release in it, or
2) The same as the above but without the Z1 release, or
3) Instead of a brain I always use two kilo's of dog shit.
These are your options my dear Trichet
because you are one of those central bankers that let M3 money
supply run out of hand at a tremendous speed and as far as I know
reality you deserve a neck shot (but a lethal injection would be
My dear Trichet, of course I keep my eye on
what the European exporters say but I will never waste European
pearls like for example Daimler Benz who reported some problems
yesterday. But you, you fuckhead, why do you waste our entire
economy with your weird M3 money policy? Did you never understand
that when you control the M3 supply there are some
responsibilities coming with that?
Why do you catcopy that weirdo Greenspan? Now?
And what has our honorable Trichet to say
upon the law of fools that says:
M3 money supply - GDP growth =
Now you fuckhead? And again: Now you fuckhead?
You complain about 'brutal moves' while you were the one that gave
rise to these easy to understand moves? You are a guy without
brains and so therefore I have to jump to the conclusion that
indeed you use two kilo's of dog shit instead of a healthy
My dear Daimler Benz & other European
pearls of industry: Prepare for at least (and likely more) of
1.5600 on the €/$ pair. I am very sorry but if Trichet is going
for a destruction of the European economy I think it is better to
call you towards the fighting you have to do. Good luck with
(22 Nov 2007) You know my dear reader, never
ever in my wildest dreams I would have thought that it is possible
to destroy America's military might by clicking around on the
website of the Federal Reserve.
Yet facts are facts and the yearly needed interest on the total of
US debt equals a rough 20% of their GDP so their economy is
doomed. And so the story has gained a few years in just a few
days, of course it will take a long time before the '20% of GDP'
knowledge sets in because every journalist that tell stuff like
that will be hanged from a tree immediately. But in the end the
money will vote with it's feet and I think that from now on the
monthly TICS data get funnier by the month.
By the way, of course Western journalists
will avoid the debt problem but for example Palestine, Iraqi and
Afghani or whatever what journalists could spread the seeds of US
You know I have doubted a few times the last
years the speed at witch this story evolves, ok ok the Iraqis and
Afghanis have grown in military might (yes even the Israelis are
complaining about the Hamas getting more efficient by the day) but
it was just too slow. Of course I knew that the demolishment of
the largest military power ever would be a task of giant
proportions, but the Z1 release from the Federal Reserve is a very
potent weapon. It even dwarfs a nuke, because a successful nuke
explosion inside the US homelands would not break her completely
in the economical sense. But revelation of the content and it's
meanings (of the Z1 release) to investors will destroy the US
economy rather efficient.
And so it is confirmed: Knowledge is power.
And therefore I have to thank the Afghanis for following a part of
the strategy for this year: Don't attack schools (and even allow
the girls to go to school; trust me on that one my beloved
For the Iraqis I can say: I can now repeat
one of my oldest advices dating back to the Summer of 2003 (so
over four years ago!): Keep attacks at such a level that the slimy
Americans are forced to drive around in convoys. That's all, for
the rest time has to do it's work.
That will not mean the policy of declared Military Bloody Days
will fade away because for example the Americans block all kinds
of chloride transports that are needed for drinking water and so
the cholera spreads around. The Americans are to blame for that
one, but lets put a date on that later.
I am a happy man: victory is not some vague
vague light on the horizon any longer, it is a clear and sharply
shining star at the sky. Till updates my dear reader.
(21 Nov 2007) Oops, I made a 50 trillion fault
in my estimation of total US debt according to the so called Z1
release but there really is not a problem.
Why is there no problem? Now, use your own
brains and check that in this Z1
file total on book debt equals 46.6193 trillion US$. (Don't
forget we also have two decades of so called 'emergency spending'
not included in this figure.)
Now since it is debt you need to pay
interest, lets say it's on average 5% and 5% of 46.6193 trillion
equals something like 2.3 trillion and that still equals a rough
19 to 20 percent of the US gross domestic product.
This simply means that for stabilizing the
'on book' debt (that means paying the interest), the Americans
need 19 to 20 percent of their GDP.
So although I was wrong a hefty 50 trillions
there is no real problem: The US economy is still a so called
Ponzi finance unit. (Meaning it will crash as soon as other
economies know that America is pested by my best friend Ponzi...)
Have a nice trading day tomorrow my dear DOW/Nasdaq/S&P
folks, have a nice trading day now the US$ runs at 1.4842 at the
moment of writing. Oh oh you stupid weirdo's, when I am through
with America she will be lean again...
Till updates my dear readers.
(20 Nov 2007) It occurred to me that somehow
access to the beloved Z1 release was hindered in some cases you
were that stupid to try to access this beloved Z1 from my website.
So I had to do some 'import stuff' and from
now on you can access the total US debt via this
file that will not be hindered for a long time I hope. Since
the file goes back to 1973 (that is 2007 - 1973 = a rough four
decades of knowledge) there is no reason for me to update on that
Federal Reserve facts are just FED facts: The
interest needed to pay down US debt would amount to 40% of the
entire GDP so what we worry?
What me worry? Now for next week? Now?
Well in fact my worries run deep: If there is
only one day we will have a positive day on the DOW Jones and we will
have to do the ugly thing.
So my dear Dow Jones traders: For the entire
week we see only losses and in case you really want to fight it
out you could perform differently.
This is what you could do my beloved Down
Jones, and you have the ammo why not behave differently? Why
(19 Nov 2007) For over one and a half year I was
eager to make the next update, so lets do it and give some
marching orders to the Lebanon based Hezbollah.
My dear Hezbollah, years ago the Lebanese
people were under the occupation of the Israelis. At a certain
point in time the Israelis did withdraw from Lebanon and all those
'Western experts' predicted havoc and more civil war.
Yet it never materialized and somehow Lebanon
grew into prosperity...
My dear and beloved Hezbollah, I know you
have greatly contributed to reality and made shambles of all those
'Western experts' insights & today I have a very complicated
and difficult task for you:
Feed the Shia part of Iraq with enough
information and insights in order to prevent civil war when we
have withdrawal of the slimy US forces.
If you help me I will help you & that is
an easy to understand axiom.
For those slimy US forces I only have to say:
Always you complain that for example Taliban stuff is mingling and
merging with civilians and so when you apply air force it is just
so regrettable civilians die...
Well this CNN file indicates that you were
handing out toys
and children got killed so why do you not fight war properly and
leave killed children out? Now? Why do you intermingle to the
result of killed children? I only wonder...
(16 Nov 2007) I am a happy man, today I found
the holy grail. Do you want to know what it is? Let me keep it
--Grab a pocket calculator and go to this US
Federal Reserve file,
add up all the numbers on the bottom line and arrive at total US
debt = 94.6 trillion US$
--Think of a reasonable interest rate for this debt, for example
--Calculate 5% of 90 trillion, answer = 4.5 trillion US$ a year.
Take into account that the US gross domestic
product is only something like 12 billion a year, calculate 4.5/12
= 37.5% and realize that the Americans need 37.5% of their GDP for
only stabilizing their debt...
I am in a good mood today and now I finally
understand why vice president Dick Cheney stated years ago that
'deficits don't matter' and this is correct: Total debt is so
large that it will never ever be paid off...
I am in a very good mood today, lets crack
the system my dear reader. Lets crack the system, lets pull the
plug. And make my dreams come true:
Defeat of the US military!
We were soldiers from a broke
(16 Nov, second temporary update) See the
I have calculated that over a 10 year period of time the US
mortgages grew 11.1% a year leading to a total of 187%
mortgage growth over this 10 year period.
Beside mortgages the Americans also have something named HELOC (re)finance,
that works just like a credit card but the rates are lower. I
haven't found any reliable total figures for that one... Till
(16 Nov 2007) Tijdelijke opdatum terwijl wij op
de TICS data wachten:
Recept voor yoghurt vruchtenijs:
Laatst kwam ik een buurvrouw tegen en die zei
tegen mij: Ik maak nooit ijs meer want een dag later is het zo
hard! Nou, dan zeg ik gewoon: 'Waarom dwing je me nou om je een
been te breken? (schreeuwen is vaak beter).
Nou, als die huisvrouwen hun eigen professie
niet aankunnen (net als die centrale bankiers) dan doen we het
maar gewoon zelf:
-400 ml mandarijen (evt uit blik, gebruik dan
ook de siroop)
-500 ml volle yoghurt
-400 ml slagroom
-vruchtensiroop tot 'zoet genoeg' (die van de Lidl is echt
uitstekend en kost maar 1,09 Euro)
Werkwijze: Pureer de mandarijnen met blender
of staafmixer, flikker de rest erbij en vruchtensiroop tot 'zoet
genoeg'. Het is handig als je je schaal en ingredienten van
tevoren een poosje in de vriezer zet dan is het lekker koud.
Let op: Ik moest het elke 20 minuten uit de vriezer halen en
doorroeren anders kreeg ik water kristallen! Na een uurtje of vier
is het wel klaar, vriezer natuurlijk wel op maximaal zetten. Dit
ijs is een dag later nog wel zacht en niet zo hard geworden, ik
heb wel vruchten uit blik gebruikt dus het kan evt aan de extra
mandarijnen siroop liggen.
Smakelijk eten, nou waar blijven die TICS data?????
Trouwens, wat je ook kunt doen: Keihard tegen
je buren schreeuwen: Waarom dwing je me nou om je kind te slaan?
(Die doet het ook altijd goed maar je moet wel voorkomen dat ze
naar de politie gaan want als je die pennelikkers eenmaal aan je
deur hebt dan is het gewoon niet leuk meer en is je hele dag
Na een uurtje wachten zijn de TICS data
binnen: 56 biljoen in de plus, dus er zijn nog veel niet
Ameikaantjes die niet snappen wat daar gaat gebeuren. Nwet flow
was minus 15 billioen en dat kan wel wat meer... Toch bleef de
dollar aardig overeind, maar een paar pips eraf.
Maar ook journalisten snappen er vaak geen bal van, zo zag ik
laatst een journo aan één of andere centrale bankier (ik weet
niet meer van welke staat) een vraag stellen over hoe erg het
negatieve spaar ratio nu eigenlijk was.
Tot mijn verbazing gaat die centrale bankier een kletsverhaal
ophangen en noemt een voorbeeld van waar het eigenlijk niet zo erg
was en in plaats van dat die journalist nou doorvraagt en
informeert op welk percentage van de bevolking dat kletsverhaal
eigenlijk van toepassing is zegt ie 'Thank you'.
Nou ja, het is ook meer dan 1000 dagen wachten geweest voordat
€/$ de 1.4500 aantikte terwijl het in 2004 allang duidelijk was
dat dat eraan zat te komen.
Even een plaatje erin om de verveling wat te
End of this temporary update, tot opdatums.
(15 Nov 2007, second update) The FED did set an
additional 47 billion US$ in the markets and in return accepted
over 20 billion mortgage backed securities... Don't believe me? Here
is the Nasdaq file with the details.
Oh oh stupid Bernanke, why do you try to catch the falling knife?
After my easy to understand calculations we have a rough 20
billion a day decline in the total housing market stuff so your
stupid move is only enough to tank 2.35 days you fool.
No no Bernanke (or Bern), now I have
activated the NightmareOnWallStreet for the second time there will
be no one standing between me and my 20 billion baby. Nothing can
come between me and my baby, you dumping 47 billion? I only wait
2.35 days & what is your next move you Bern baby Bern? Till
updates my dear Burnanke.
(15 Nov 2007) Wow, that is good news coming from
Iraq: we had daisy chain of shaped explosives near the so called
Green Zone. Quote (source):
U.S. authorities said penetrators were used in an attack Wednesday against a U.S. Stryker vehicle near an entrance to the Green Zone, killing an American soldier and wounding five others. Iraqi police said two Iraqi civilians also were killed.
It was the first major attack against a U.S. military vehicle in that area in the last four or five months, Simmons said.
He said the vehicle was struck by "an array" of penetrators. The attack occurred in one of the most heavily protected areas of the capital, raising questions how the explosives could have been planted without collusion from Iraqi police or soldiers.
Comment: Not much comment is needed, I am
back online so it is rather obvious some significant things would
or could happen. I am glad that given the new policy we now have
in place, there was help from the Iraqi police and or new army.
But don't forget priority one of the changed policy: bringing
security to the whole of Iraq, somehow we must end that
Last detail of this update: Last OPEC's meeting
was in line with my humble request to put (at least) 5 billion US$
a year in the bank accounts of the Iraqi Crescent, what can I say?
I can only hope and so I am hoping for the best.
The NightmareOnWallStreet file is also updated.
(14 Nov 2007) Today I investigated a bit more
around the total US housing market value and with some tricks I
coughed up a good estimation of 34.8 trillion US$ for household
houses only. (See this update.)
According to Mr. Shiller (from the S&P Case Shiller housing
index) the decline will last for years (well I do not need
Shiller for observing the obvious but I know there is a lot of
emotional resistance under some of my readers who have gone short
on brains.) See this Reuters
So indeed it is confirmed: The decline in housing value is over
ten times as big as the trade deficit and runs at approx 20
billion US$/day. So I was not outside reality when I activated the
beloved NightmareOnWallStreet once more!
Wow man, I love this housing baby & I will nourish it and give
it all my love and attention. Likely we will have TICS data
tomorrow so we can se if there are still real (estate) idiots
investing in the USA.
Have a nice life or try to get one... Till
(13 Nov 2007, second update) My dear Cyber
Warriors I am having a real problem with one dot com & it is
very simple: They refuse to pay me back some money I accidentally
paid them. I paid them on the 4th of July and they have an amazing
list of new demands needed to pay back only 30+ €.
So I would like to see how far you are with
your SCSI/RAID weaponry, as far as I know one dot com is Danish
based but given the name it is impossible it is not under US
control/ownership. Good luck with it. Till updates.
(13 Nov 2007) Why are Americans always so over enthusiastic
about their economy? Here
is a hedge fund keeper that estimates a 20 to 30% decline in the
DOW value thus pushing stuff in the 9000 to 10000 range. That's
very very optimistic, well we wait and see. Just wait and see.
(12 Nov 2007) According to some very simple
calculations the speed at witch US housing market value is
vaporizing is now equivalent to 60 - 70 US$ a day for every US
citizen... As a comparison: this is over 10 times the trade
deficit. Here are the easy to understand calculations.
Furthermore: I have activated the goodie good
old NightmareOnWallStreet once more and new target on the €/$
pair is at least 1.56!
Till updates my dear reader.
(11 Nov 2007) For months on a row I am on the
search for a new job but I cannot find any satisfying job here,
only in Amsterdam and Rotterdam is the stuff I want but I can't
move over there because of the kids.
So today I searched for hedge funds because a
lot of hedge fund work can be done from your home, to my surprise
I found this next hedge fund where you have to declare that you
are non American, not related to any US company, not related to
any company working under US law, etc etc. Wow man, they hate
Don't believe me? Here is their entry
Yippie yah, yippie yippie yeeh!
I emailed them and I hope they think that we
will have something like an estimated 15+ trillion crash on the US
housing market... That is what I hope!
Till updates my beloved reader & I hope
my words for the OPEC from yesterday (see below) will do their
work. Of course we have to throw in the delicate S&P housing
index once more, my dear reader don't you think that housing index
will decline to at least 160????? That is what hedge funds do:
They go for mispricings (meaning under or over valuation of large
This is the 10 year S&P housing
index for the entire USA, have fun you bunch of WallStreet
weirdo's because it will retreat to 160 at least!
(10 Nov 2007) Today I was touched by this CNN
report on Iraqi parents abandoning their children, well I will not
glide into a verbal ramming against the Americans who have brought
Iraq in the state it is right now.
No I want some serious help for the Iraqi Red
Crescent and I want this help from the OPEC members and the size of
the help is five billion US dollars more a year. Five billion a
year may sound a lot but it is peanuts compared what the Americans
pump in and under perform with...
In return OPEC is allowed to find the so
called equilibrium price of oil and they can start withdraw oil to
the London and New York markets until we have reached 120$ a
barrel. It is important to take your time and the oil withdrawn
should go to other countries according to my developed so called
'labor standard' for money. (I will not repeat the entire labor
standard discussion here only remark that it is reasonable that
whatever you are on this world and you are poor, it is reasonable
that you work the same amounts of minutes for a kilo of bread for
Dear OPEC folks, lets go back to the past:
Were the Americans not very successful into implementing all kinds
of global economical havoc in case oil prices would climb above 30
$ / barrel? And with a little smile on my evil face I have to
admit that indeed I am very surprised too that the world economy
is still rather vital now we approach the 100 $ / barrel level.
OPEC folks should not be concerned about the
impending crash in America, of course they will blame you first
but the next S&P housing index only says they did it all to
themselves (remark by the way that a 10 year climb to 260+
indicates a year on year average of 2.6^0.1 = 1.10 so over 10
percent housing value growth over a 10 year time period... The
idiots did it all to themselves because housing prices should be
correlated to median individual income.
And OPEC, if you think you can fool your audience that long you
need a little punishment. I hope that OPEC thinks I have laid down
a reasonable proposal at their feet, you can pick it up or you can
proceed bringing tropical diseases like cholera to Iraq. Plafond
of London & New York markets is 120 $ / barrel and you can
choose the timeline for yourself.
Of course we close this days update with that
wonderful Standard & Poor's index of total USA housing market
This is the 10 year S&P housing
index for the entire USA, have fun you bunch of WallStreet
weirdo's because it will retreat to 160 at least!
Till updates my dear reader. Till updates.
(09 Nov 2007 second update) My dear Iraqis, I am
sorry you did not hear from me a long long time. But I never
forgot you, how could I? How could I?
Of course I followed the news from your country, of course I did.
But only now when we often have only single digit civil death toll
in Baghdad a day it is time to come back. So it has taken a long
long time since 19 Oct last year but civil death toll has lowered
Let me keep this update as short as possible
and I would like to announce a very important policy shift because
I cannot take all those dead civilians any longer, they just hurt
me so much in my brain. Just so much.
So here it is:
First priority will be bringing more
security to the whole of Iraq, the other priorities serve the
Second priority is (of course) killing
those slimy Americans in large enough numbers especially in
times of (for example) American elections.
Third priority about killing police and
new born Iraqi army: The old axiom of 'the higher your rank
the more likely it is you get killed' is replaced by: Only
high ranking officers and from the lower ranks only those who
do weird stuff like arresting Iraqis who have attacked those
So that's the policy. By the way, may I thank
al Sadr for his withdrawal and cleaning up the ranks of the Mahdi
militia? And I hope that the Sunni's have succeeded in cleaning up
their ranks from extremists who for example cut of index fingers
from smoking teenagers.
End of the second update, love you all &
as usual: till updates.
(09 Nov 2007) So after a few months of
being away, I am back!
Well Lets check how fast the next knowledge
will get in the stupid heads of the DOW, Nasdaq and S&P500
weirdo's (by the way, my estimation is that this US housing index
will sink as low as 160 so any idiot that still invests in the USA
is a real (estate) idiot):
This is the 10 year S&P housing
index for the entire USA, have fun you bunch of WallStreet
weirdo's because it will retreat to 160!
Lets see if we can update, by the way my
computer is almost broken so when I don't update for some time
there is likely nothing at hand..... See yah!